Conclusion 20

We asked the Department how it had concluded that the new hospitals required more beds than those they were replacing given that its 10-year health plan aims to shift of care out of hospitals and into the community.41 The Department told us that, since 2023, it had updated overly optimistic assumptions about bed capacity and future demographic growth while considering what care can be moved out of hospitals and into the community. NHS England said that underlying growth in demand was “generally the biggest variable”.42 In written evidence provided after the session, the Department explained that the 6% growth had been a broad assumption developed at the programme level, and that it was conducting further modelling to assess what size is appropriate for individual schemes.43 The Department told us that it expected the bed number forecasts to reduce during the business case process as the programme works with trusts to identify what care can be shifted into the community, highlighting Leighton Hospital as an example.44