Recommendation 5

EU Exit and the Covid-19 response have shown up critical gaps in the civil service’s approach to planning, particularly for unexpected events or undesired outcomes. The Cabinet Office keeps a national risk register, with input from across government and particularly the Treasury. The risk register includes “unexpected events” in terms of those that are irregular but known to occur, and those which may not have occurred before but which there may be a chance of occurring. However, in practice, recent events have shown up the limitations in these plans. Ministers specifically limited the amount of contingency planning the civil service was expected to carry out ahead of the EU Exit referendum in 2016. This led to a delay on negotiating positions and preparations as government had to take time after the referendum to formulate policy and determine what type of agreement they wanted to have with the EU. Our previous work on Covid-19 has highlighted the gaps in economic planning for pandemics, even though the risk of a pandemic was one of the most likely risks government had identified. The government has announced that there will be a review of its response to Covid-19, but so far only initial discussions have been held and no date has been set. Recommendation: The civil service has a duty to plan for multiple scenarios, even those which it or Ministers considers unlikely or undesirable. Civil servants should seek formal instruction if told not to plan by Ministers. Planning should be proportionate to the risk, but there should be mechanisms for activity to ramp up as risks get bigger. For example, on EU Exit, we would have expected increasing levels of planning from when the referendum commitment appeared in the Conservative Party manifesto. The civil service should consider the development of standard principles, particularly for planning for unexpected scenarios, which would put government in a better position to respond quickly.