Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 11
11
We asked whether the Departments had undertaken any evaluation on the regional differences in take-up...
Conclusion
We asked whether the Departments had undertaken any evaluation on the regional differences in take-up or the schemes and take-up by groups with protected characteristics.24 HMRC currently reports monthly on the cost of the schemes and provides analysis on take-up by different demographics. The data for October 2020 showed that CJRS had cost £41.4 billion and the two SEISS grants had cost £13.7 billion.25 Take up for CJRS was largest amongst the wholesale and retail, and repair of motor vehicles, sectors, whilst in SEISS it was largest in the construction sector. It is also possible to analyse take-up by age and gender, as well as by parliamentary constituency for both schemes.26 HMRC does not, however, monitor take-up of the schemes by different ethnic groups as it is not required to collect that data as part of its regular tax administration. HM Treasury commented that it looked at Office for National Statistics (ONS) data to consider the potential effects of the schemes on unemployment, including regional unemployment.27 ONS’ unemployment data for July to September 2020 showed that the unemployment rate was 4.8%, up from 4.0% in March 2020.28 HMRC told us it had done some preliminary research about what happened to furloughed workers once they come off furlough, which suggested that around 90% of them return to their previous job.29 The medium to long-term projections on unemployment, however, are less encouraging; the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast, released on 25 November 2020, suggests that unemployment might peak at 7.6%, or 2.6 million people, in 2021.30
Government Response
Not Addressed
HM Government
Not Addressed
4: PAC conclusion: The Departments did not evaluate the schemes or identify which the groups they support before extending them. 4: PAC recommendation HMRC should, as soon as possible, develop and report monthly perfor mance information on the schemes, such as take-up by protected groups and employment outcomes. 4. 1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 4.2 Both departments are already monitoring the use of CJRS and SEISS, and HMRC is regularly publishing Official Statistics on the schemes including analysis of take up by area, age and gender. The CJRS statistics include analysis of the use of flexible furlough. 4.3 In October 2020, HMRC published secondary analysis of ended furloughs, which found that 90% of employees who left the CJRS between April and July 2020 were still on their original payroll in August 2020, suggesting they remained working for their original employer. HMRC also published qualitative and quantitative research, on awareness, understanding and customer experience of the CJRS2. 4.4 HMRC is collecting new primary research to examine jobs outcomes, working closely with HM Treasury to respond to emerging plans and priorities as the pandemic evolves. As announced on gov.uk, the departments will evaluate the CJRS and SEISS schemes and have published a detailed evaluation plan for CJRS. The CJRS evaluation aims to include the impact on employment. The evaluation will capture the extension and we will publish in line with relevant guidance. Some of the longer-term outcomes will be measured and reported in our routine publications.