Recommendation 18

In terms of its compliance work, restrictions on travel and social distancing have affected HMRC’s ability to visit taxpayers and many businesses have not been operating. HMRC told us that while it has restarted some of its criminal investigations, it has put its more routine compliance work that involves visits to taxpayers’ premises on hold. The Department did point out, however, that the vast majority of its compliance work is done remotely and does not require visiting premises.48 Nevertheless, HMRC confirmed that it will collect less compliance through its compliance activity in 2020–21 than in did in 2019–20.49 We asked HMRC about the impact of the pandemic on tax receipts and the effect of this on its compliance activities. HMRC told us that the economic impact of COVID-19, in reducing incomes, and government measures to defer payment of certain taxes, will lower tax receipts in 2020–21. The Department told us that the Office for Budget Responsibility expects a reduction in receipts in both this year and future years.50 While COVID-19 is an unprecedented event, HMRC told us its experience of the 2007 financial crisis suggests that, in a period of economic downturn, the tax gap is not necessarily affected significantly, with the exception of one element. That one element being ‘non- payment’ mainly where people or businesses become insolvent without paying their taxes.51