Recommendation 8

In September 2020, SAGE concluded that “test and trace was having only a marginal impact on transmission”. NHST&T said that the situation had improved, and highlighted that it was now meeting all its operational performance targets for contact tracing.21 22 It also quoted findings from an “independent verified analysis” which suggested that, NHST&T activities in October 2020, may have contributed to a reduction in the ‘R number’ (the number of other people a person with COVID-19 infects) by 0.3 to 0.6 (18–33% of the estimated ‘R number’ in October).23 However, as set out in the analysis published by NHST&T the biggest part of this estimated impact arises from the assumption that people self-isolate for the period between developing COVID symptoms and receiving their test results, i.e. before even engaging with the test and trace system. NHST&T’s model also suggested that only around 10% of the total reduction in the “R number” could be attributed to NHST&T’s contact tracing activities.24 We are also aware that the interim report on the Liverpool mass testing pilot did not find clear evidence that the pilot reduced positive COVID-19 cases or hospital admissions.25 Managing supply and demand