Recommendation 18

HM Treasury’s guide to Managing Public Money states that that every department should measure and estimate the scale of fraud and error and disclose this in its Annual Report were material.45 The NAO identified the proper measurement of fraud and error as a crucial because it shows departments where controls need to be improved and counter fraud efforts directed.46 We asked HMRC when it expects to have an estimate of fraud and error in the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. HMRC told us it does not expect to have a statistically valid estimate until December 2021 as the planned random sampling exercise “will take time to complete” though the evaluation framework for the CJRS was published in December 2020.47 HMRC clarified in a written response to us that it does not intend to measure the rate of fraud and error in the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme and Eat Out To Help Out schemes and will instead use a “blended approach” bringing in a wide range of available evidence.48