Recommendation 11

The Counter Fraud Function undertook a Global Fraud Risk Assessment across 206 COVID-19 response schemes, with an estimated total value of £387 billion. It risk-assessed 16 of these schemes as having a high or very high fraud risk, representing 57% (£219 billion) of the £387 billion.31 As part of this Global Fraud Risk Assessment, the Counter Fraud Function identified four COVID-19 response schemes as having the highest risk of fraud and error: a) Universal Credit, as DWP accepts that a doubling of the caseload and relaxing controls will lead to a further increase in fraud and error levels. There is uncertainty around exactly how much fraud and error will rise but NAO believes that the increase is likely to be substantial. b) Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, as HMRC’s planning assumption estimated fraud and error losses of 5% to 10% of scheme expenditure. c) The Bounce Back Loan Scheme, as BEIS and the British Business Bank have estimated between 35% and 60% of the loans may not be repaid due to fraud or credit issues. d) Coronavirus Response Fund - Funding for the NHS: Procurement of medical equipment (including additional ventilators), as there is a high risk of fraud in procurement of personal protective equipment.