Recommendation 15

We received written evidence from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS), which told us that it also projected growth in recruitment of both domestic 18-year-olds and international students between now and 2026. UCAS projected that the 2026 admissions cycle would have one million applicants compared with just over 700,000 in 2021. About 40% of this increase would be attributable to growth in demand from UK 18- year-olds (driven by increases in both application rates and the population), with the remaining 60% driven by continued growth in demand from mature and international students.27 The OfS assured us that it would be checking whether, if projections do not materialise, providers still have the ability to remain financially viable and sustainable.28 The Department told us that, among its main international competitors, the UK was 22 Qq 44–49; Office for Students Strategy 2022 to 2025, Office for Students, 23 March 2022; C&AG’s Report, para 3.25 23 Qq 59–63; C&AG’s Report, para 3.6 24 Q 24; FSE0003 Financial Sustainability of the higher education sector in England, The Russell Group, 21 March 2022, para 28; C&AG’s Report, para 1.12 and Figure 3 25 Q 80 26 Q 5; C&AG’s Report, paras 2.9–2.11 and Figure 8 27 FSE0001 Financial Sustainability of the higher education sector in England, UCAS, 21 March 2022, page 2 28 Q 5 12 Financial sustainability of the higher education sector in England the only country that significantly grew its international student recruitment during the pandemic. The Department recognised, however, that it is a very competitive market and that there are many countries around the world seeking to bring in more international students, for exactly the same reasons that UK providers are.29