Recommendation 14

The medium- and long-term financial sustainability of some providers is heavily dependent on continued growth in student numbers, particularly overseas students. In 2018, providers forecasted that the number of non-EU students would grow by 29% between the 2019/20 and 2024/25 academic years, compared with a 17% increase in UK student numbers and a 31% fall in the number of EU students. The OfS told us that it monitored providers’ student number projections closely to check whether they were credible. Having previously found a degree of over-optimism in some providers’ forecasts, it told us that it continued to encourage caution while recognising that there are reasons why providers might feel more confident about recruitment over the next few years. It explained that this included: an increase in the number of 18-year-olds because of demographic changes; and evidence on international student flows, which do not show signs of abating.26