Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 14
14
The medium- and long-term financial sustainability of some providers is heavily dependent on continued growth...
Conclusion
The medium- and long-term financial sustainability of some providers is heavily dependent on continued growth in student numbers, particularly overseas students. In 2018, providers forecasted that the number of non-EU students would grow by 29% between the 2019/20 and 2024/25 academic years, compared with a 17% increase in UK student numbers and a 31% fall in the number of EU students. The OfS told us that it monitored providers’ student number projections closely to check whether they were credible. Having previously found a degree of over-optimism in some providers’ forecasts, it told us that it continued to encourage caution while recognising that there are reasons why providers might feel more confident about recruitment over the next few years. It explained that this included: an increase in the number of 18-year-olds because of demographic changes; and evidence on international student flows, which do not show signs of abating.26
Government Response
Not Addressed
HM Government
Not Addressed
4.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 4.2 The department recognises that the financial sustainability of the higher education sector depends on the continuing contribution made by income from overseas students, if not necessarily on the growth trend as currently forecast. Many factors affect overseas students’ decisions about where to pursue higher education, ranging from geopolitical developments, through public health issues, to students’ behavioural changes. No government could mitigate the full risk of such factors, but through the International Education Strategy (IES) and the 2021 update, the government has established a thorough approach to promoting higher education to overseas students and mitigating risks associated with providers’ dependence on overseas fee income. 4.3 The IES is committed to growing the value of education exports to £35 billion and to hosting at least 600,000 international higher education students in the UK per year by 2030. The international students ambition of 600,000 was met for the first time in 2020-21, with over 605,000 international students studying in the UK. 4.4 The IES sets out the government’s ambition to enhance the entire international student experience, from application to employment. It also makes clear that the diversification and sustainable recruitment of international students remains a key strategic priority for the sector. 4.5 It is a matter for higher education providers, as autonomous bodies, to forecast sensibly when planning for their financial sustainability. The OfS monitors this, including reviewing forecasts for optimism bias amongst providers. The department and the OfS continue to work closely together in considering financial risks facing the sector. Updated analysis of those risks will continue to inform departmental strategy.