Recommendation 15

The Ministry admitted that its evaluation in the transformation programme was not as strong as it should have been and recognised that it needed to put more effort into evaluation going forward. It told us that it was extending its team of analysts in its expansion programme, from three to 17.26 The Ministry told us that while there was evidence which suggested that tagging changes offenders’ behaviour while offenders were wearing tags, insights into longer-term impacts after tags are removed were limited. It committed to rigorously evaluate its current and future programmes and the extent to which tagging impacts on longer-term outcomes, including reducing reoffending, which it described as the “holy grail” of insight.27 The Ministry told us it looked forward to collecting robust and world-leading evidence, but that it did not underestimate the challenge ahead. It explained that it would need to rely on higher numbers of tagged offenders to produce robust analyses, while it still needs to better understand differences in outcomes between tagged offenders and control groups.28