Recommendation 2

HMRC does not expect to prosecute as many people for tax evasion as it did before the pandemic. HMRC prosecuted far fewer cases during the pandemic than before 2020. It has said publicly that no one will escape prosecution and that it has up to 20 years to follow up on cases of fraud. However, it also said it would not prosecute as many people as before the pandemic, despite a reduction of around 1,000 cases during the two pandemic years. HMRC says its strategy is to prosecute the most serious forms of evasion and criminal activity, and that it focuses on high- value and high-profile cases rather than large volumes of smaller cases. However, we are concerned that, without sufficient numbers of prosecutions, HMRC cannot demonstrate a credible deterrent effect. We have previously recommended that HMRC should measure the deterrent effect of its work, but it concluded that it could not do so. Recommendation 2: HMRC should develop a better understanding of the deterrent effect of its compliance work, for example by monitoring the future revenue benefit of prosecutions compared to those it decides not to prosecute. It should utilise the expertise of academics, if necessary, for example using the HMRC Datalab.