Recommendations & Conclusions
26 items
2
Recommendation
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC does not expect to prosecute as many people for tax evasion as it did before the pandemic. HMRC prosecuted far fewer cases during the pandemic than before 2020. It has said publicly that no one will escape prosecution and that it has up to 20 years to follow up …
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HMRC does not expect to prosecute as many people for tax evasion as it did before the pandemic. HMRC prosecuted far fewer cases during the pandemic than before 2020. It has said publicly that no one will escape prosecution and that it has up to 20 years to follow up on cases of fraud. However, it also said it would not prosecute as many people as before the pandemic, despite a reduction of around 1,000 cases during the two pandemic years. HMRC says its strategy is to prosecute the most serious forms of evasion and criminal activity, and that it focuses on high- value and high-profile cases rather than large volumes of smaller cases. However, we are concerned that, without sufficient numbers of prosecutions, HMRC cannot demonstrate a credible deterrent effect. We have previously recommended that HMRC should measure the deterrent effect of its work, but it concluded that it could not do so. Recommendation 2: HMRC should develop a better understanding of the deterrent effect of its compliance work, for example by monitoring the future revenue benefit of prosecutions compared to those it decides not to prosecute. It should utilise the expertise of academics, if necessary, for example using the HMRC Datalab.
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Government response AI summary
The government accepts the recommendation and commits to commencing new work in the 2023-24 financial year to understand the deterrent effect of criminal investigations resulting in prosecutions, with a target implementation date of June 2024.
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HM Treasury
3
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Not Addressed
Compliance yield fell during the pandemic, and HMRC does not know what level it should be targeting with its current resources. In the five years before the pandemic, HMRC collected on average around 5.2% of tax revenues through its compliance work. This fell significantly during the pandemic, initially to 5.0% …
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Compliance yield fell during the pandemic, and HMRC does not know what level it should be targeting with its current resources. In the five years before the pandemic, HMRC collected on average around 5.2% of tax revenues through its compliance work. This fell significantly during the pandemic, initially to 5.0% in 2020–21 and then 4.2% in 2021–22. This drop equates to a £9 billion reduction in compliance yield over the two years, compared with previous performance. HMRC maintains that no tax will go uncollected as a result of the pandemic. However, it would not be drawn on the future level of compliance yield it can generate beyond the current year’s target of £36 billion, citing uncertainty in the economy and 6 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic inflationary pressures. We are concerned that any compliance yield projections or targets it expresses in cash terms will not be sufficiently stretching during a period of high inflation. HMRC will need compliance yield to exceed 5.2% of tax revenues over the next few years to demonstrate it has caught up with the impact of the pandemic. Recommendation 3: HMRC should set a clear target of the compliance yield required to make up the shortfall during the pandemic, and specify a rolling target for compliance yield as a percentage of tax revenues.
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Government response AI summary
The government response provided only states a different PAC conclusion (number 4) and does not contain a response to Recommendation 3 regarding compliance yield targets.
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HM Treasury
4
Recommendation
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC is not doing enough to help those who want to pay their taxes correctly. Taxpayers who want to pay their tax sometimes need help to get it right, and both the pandemic and the economic situation since have put pressure on people and businesses. Tax debt levels have risen …
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HMRC is not doing enough to help those who want to pay their taxes correctly. Taxpayers who want to pay their tax sometimes need help to get it right, and both the pandemic and the economic situation since have put pressure on people and businesses. Tax debt levels have risen again—from £39.4 billion in April 2022 to £45.7 billion in November 2022—rather than decrease as HMRC initially expected. HMRC has made changes to its debt management practices, including tailoring its approach to each taxpayer’s circumstances and ability to pay, and informing this with new data from credit reference agencies. It has improved its productivity at recovering overdue debts, which we welcome. However, this has still not been enough to stop debt levels rising due to the number of people finding it difficult to pay. HMRC’s customer services are also struggling with high call volumes, particularly at certain times of year, meaning those who need help to get their tax affairs right cannot always get support. Taxpayers who want to put their affairs right can find it hard to do so due to inflexible repayment practices and confusing correspondence from HMRC. Recommendation 4: HMRC should ensure it is providing sufficient support to taxpayers, big and small, who want to pay their tax. It should look at whether the additional staff it has secured for debt recovery work are sufficient, given it is struggling to keep up with demand even with better productivity.
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Government response AI summary
The government accepts the recommendation, stating it provides flexible repayment practices and has secured new funding to improve the online Time to Pay service functionality. It also details that 500 additional debt management staff funded in 2022 are now in place and £20 million has …
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HM Treasury
5
Recommendation
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
We are concerned that HMRC may be overstating the impact of its compliance work, and that it is overcharging some taxpayers. HMRC tests 400 of its completed compliance cases each year. In 2021–22, 80 of these cases had errors in the compliance yield recorded, which were skewed towards overstating yield. …
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We are concerned that HMRC may be overstating the impact of its compliance work, and that it is overcharging some taxpayers. HMRC tests 400 of its completed compliance cases each year. In 2021–22, 80 of these cases had errors in the compliance yield recorded, which were skewed towards overstating yield. HMRC’s testing also found seven cases where it had overcharged the taxpayers by a total of £32 million. HMRC says that it has controls in place to prevent over-recording of yield but acknowledges that it does not know to what extent the errors identified are representative of compliance yield as a whole being overstated. HMRC also cannot estimate how many taxpayers it is overcharging following compliance enquiries, or by how much. It says that there has been a slight improvement in the quality of its casework in the past year but acknowledges that the number of overcharges identified in its sample testing is too high. HMRC has agreed to update its testing approach so that it can better estimate the extent of errors it makes. Recommendation 5: a) HMRC should develop statistically robust estimates of the level of error in its compliance yield measure, and how far taxpayers are overcharged. Managing tax compliance following the pandemic 7 b) HMRC should demonstrate it has taken all proportionate steps to identify and correct overcharges. It should make clear what compensation is available if taxpayers are overcharged.
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Government response AI summary
The government accepts the recommendation, committing to design a new sampling approach by June 2024 to develop statistically robust estimates of compliance yield error and the extent of taxpayer overcharging. They also clarify existing mechanisms for addressing overcharges, including complaints, reviews, reimbursement of costs, and …
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HM Treasury
6
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Not Addressed
There are signs that the tax gap may grow, and that HMRC does not have the operational resilience needed to deal with this. HMRC is funded to stop the tax gap from growing. The tax gap is an important measure of how much revenue may be missed—due to evasion, avoidance …
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There are signs that the tax gap may grow, and that HMRC does not have the operational resilience needed to deal with this. HMRC is funded to stop the tax gap from growing. The tax gap is an important measure of how much revenue may be missed—due to evasion, avoidance or non-payment—that could otherwise fund vital public services. Due to the way it is estimated, the tax gap does not yet reflect the full impact of the pandemic and will not do so for some time. HMRC’s latest estimate is that the tax gap was stable in 2020–21, but HMRC says that this has a much larger range of uncertainty than normal and may need to be revised as it gets more data. There is a significant risk that the tax gap will grow, in light of compliance yield dropping and levels of debt and non-payment rising. HMRC’s own planning estimates indicate that it is unlikely to generate enough compliance yield to stop the tax gap from growing in the next few years. However, it does not have a contingency plan if this happens. Since it takes four years to get compliance staff fully trained and up to speed, there could be a long lag if HMRC waits to determine whether it needs more resources. HMRC has up to 20 years to pursue cases of suspected non- compliance, but this only applies to fraud cases. For errors the period is less, and in some cases HMRC cannot go back more than four years. Recommendation 6: a) HMRC needs to build in more resilience to the tax system, with the tax gap at risk of growing and high returns available from compliance work there is a strong value for money case for increasing resources. b) At a minimum, HMRC should specify a contingency plan for bringing in additional compliance capacity to ensure increased levels of non- compliance can be tackled quickly, and before the window closes for investigating cases it did not pursue during the pandemic. 8 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic 1 Impact of the pandemic on tax compliance
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Government response AI summary
The government response provided addresses a recommendation to the Cabinet Office regarding contingency plans for the Shared Services Strategy, which is entirely unrelated to the committee's recommendation concerning HMRC's operational resilience and tax gap capacity.
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HM Treasury
1
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Not Addressed
On the basis of a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, we took evidence from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) regarding the challenges to tackle non-compliance during and following on from the pandemic.1
Government response AI summary
The government acknowledges that the Committee took evidence from HM Revenue and Customs based on a report by the National Audit Office.
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HM Treasury
7
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
During the two pandemic years of 2020–21 and 2021–22, ‘compliance yield’ (the additional revenues protected as a result of HMRC’s interventions) per staff member fell from £1.3 million a year to £1.1 million (in 2021 prices).10 HMRC told us this was due to several factors, including the fact that staff …
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During the two pandemic years of 2020–21 and 2021–22, ‘compliance yield’ (the additional revenues protected as a result of HMRC’s interventions) per staff member fell from £1.3 million a year to £1.1 million (in 2021 prices).10 HMRC told us this was due to several factors, including the fact that staff redeployed away from tax compliance and onto the COVID schemes were typically more experienced.11 HMRC’s operations were also affected by external factors such as court closures and requirements on homeworking, social distancing or personal protective equipment.12
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the committee's observation, stating that HMRC sets compliance yield targets to maintain a stable tax gap, deploys resources effectively, and that the tax compliance gap remained low during the pandemic years.
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HM Treasury
8
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
HMRC did not initially recruit at scale but has more recently recruited 4,800 new compliance staff, leading to 2,500 more FTE than in 2021–22. HMRC expects staff productivity to increase over the next few years, but told us that new staff take up to four years to be fully productive. …
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HMRC did not initially recruit at scale but has more recently recruited 4,800 new compliance staff, leading to 2,500 more FTE than in 2021–22. HMRC expects staff productivity to increase over the next few years, but told us that new staff take up to four years to be fully productive. The return per staff member is therefore likely to stay lower than before the pandemic due to lack of experience among newer staff.13 Prosecutions
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Government response AI summary
The government explicitly disagrees with the committee's observation (interpreted as a recommendation), explaining that reduced yield during the pandemic was due to staff deployment to the Taxpayer Protection Taskforce. They assert that compliance performance should be viewed on a multi-year basis and that HMRC constantly …
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HM Treasury
9
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
Over the two pandemic years, HMRC completed around 1,000 fewer prosecutions for tax-related offences than before the pandemic. In 2020–21 and 2021–22, it concluded just 163 and 236 prosecutions respectively, compared with around 700 a year in the two years before the pandemic.14 HMRC told us that court closures and …
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Over the two pandemic years, HMRC completed around 1,000 fewer prosecutions for tax-related offences than before the pandemic. In 2020–21 and 2021–22, it concluded just 163 and 236 prosecutions respectively, compared with around 700 a year in the two years before the pandemic.14 HMRC told us that court closures and reduced court capacity during the pandemic affected the extent to which it could progress prosecutions through the courts, which therefore constrained the numbers it could complete.15
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees with the committee's observation, stating that tax crime prosecutions are expected to increase with a focus on high-harm cases and HMRC will commence new work in 2023-24 to understand the deterrent effect of its criminal investigations by June 2024.
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HM Treasury
10
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
However, HMRC also told us that it was already reducing numbers of prosecutions before the pandemic, and that is not planning on restoring the number of prosecutions to pre-pandemic levels, even with the backlog. Before the pandemic, the number of prosecutions had reduced from around 900 in 2017–18 to around …
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However, HMRC also told us that it was already reducing numbers of prosecutions before the pandemic, and that is not planning on restoring the number of prosecutions to pre-pandemic levels, even with the backlog. Before the pandemic, the number of prosecutions had reduced from around 900 in 2017–18 to around 700 in each of 2018–19 and 2019–20. HMRC told us this was because it considered that its criminal prosecution powers were best used to tackle the most serious and complex cases, rather than large volumes of smaller cases.16
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees and states that tax crime prosecutions are expected to increase in future years, focusing on the highest-harm and most serious cases. HMRC will also commence new work in the 2023-24 financial year to understand the deterrent effect of its criminal investigations by …
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HM Treasury
11
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
We asked whether such significant reductions in prosecutions risks weakening the deterrent effect of HMRC’s work, which could lead to greater levels of non-compliance. HMRC told us that while it wants to see serious tax crimes addressed in the most effective way, it is not seriously concerned that the reduction …
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We asked whether such significant reductions in prosecutions risks weakening the deterrent effect of HMRC’s work, which could lead to greater levels of non-compliance. HMRC told us that while it wants to see serious tax crimes addressed in the most effective way, it is not seriously concerned that the reduction might weaken the deterrent effect. It argued that the publicity around high-profile convictions, as well as its use of other enforcement tools such as civil powers, is sufficient to maintain a credible deterrent.17 However, it does not have a way to monitor this. This Committee has previously recommended that HMRC should measure the deterrent effect of its work, but it concluded 9 Q 46; C&AG’s Report, para 9 10 C&AG’s Report, para 19 11 Q 46 12 Q 80; C&AG’s Report, para 1.10 13 Qq 44, 80; C&AG’s Report, para 19 14 Q 47; C&AG’s Report, para 16 15 Qq 48–52 16 Qq 53–54; C&AG’s Report, para 16 17 Qq 47, 55 10 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic that it could not do so.18 There may be scope for HMRC to make more use of the expertise of academics, for example using its Datalab which provides trusted researchers with secure access to anonymised data.19 Compliance yield
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees with the committee's observation, stating that tax crime prosecutions are expected to increase and HMRC will commence new work in 2023-24 to understand the deterrent effect of its criminal investigations, with a target implementation date of June 2024.
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HM Treasury
12
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
HMRC defines compliance yield as the additional revenue collected and protected that would have otherwise been lost to the Exchequer if not for HMRC’s interventions. It is the most direct measure of the impact of HMRC’s compliance work, and it covers both the broad effect of its measures to prevent …
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HMRC defines compliance yield as the additional revenue collected and protected that would have otherwise been lost to the Exchequer if not for HMRC’s interventions. It is the most direct measure of the impact of HMRC’s compliance work, and it covers both the broad effect of its measures to prevent non-compliance and the direct impact of its enquiries and investigations into non-compliance that has already happened.20
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the recommendation, stating that HMRC sets compliance yield targets based on an agreed methodology with HM Treasury and the OBR, aimed at maintaining a stable tax gap and delivering revenues from fiscal event measures.
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HM Treasury
13
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
In the five years before the pandemic, HMRC collected or protected an average of 5.2% of tax revenues through its compliance work. In 2020–21, total tax revenues fell as a result of the pandemic, but compliance yield fell slightly further, dropping to 5.0% of total revenues. In 2021–22, total revenues …
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In the five years before the pandemic, HMRC collected or protected an average of 5.2% of tax revenues through its compliance work. In 2020–21, total tax revenues fell as a result of the pandemic, but compliance yield fell slightly further, dropping to 5.0% of total revenues. In 2021–22, total revenues rose by 20% to record levels following the reopening of the economy and other factors such as higher inflation. However, compliance yield did not recover at the same pace, dropping to 4.2% of total revenues. This drop equates to a £9 billion reduction in compliance yield over the two years, compared with previous performance.21 HMRC told us that this partly reflected the economic impacts of the pandemic, and that there was less yield to be had. However, it also acknowledged that the reduction was affected by reductions in its own work, and a reduced ability of taxpayers to engage with its enquiries.22
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the committee's observation, stating that HMRC sets compliance yield targets to maintain a stable tax gap, deploys resources effectively, and that the tax compliance gap remained low in the pandemic years in line with pre-pandemic levels.
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HM Treasury
14
Recommendation
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
We asked HMRC whether, to catch up on compliance yield lost during the pandemic, it should expect to generate higher levels of yield than before the pandemic over the next few years. HMRC acknowledged that this should happen over time and suggested that no tax should go uncollected as a …
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We asked HMRC whether, to catch up on compliance yield lost during the pandemic, it should expect to generate higher levels of yield than before the pandemic over the next few years. HMRC acknowledged that this should happen over time and suggested that no tax should go uncollected as a result of the pandemic because it can go back up to 20 years with its compliance enquiries. However, it told us that other risks of non-compliance may take priority. There are also timing issues between when taxes are owed and when HMRC records compliance yield, meaning the full impact of the pandemic will not be known for several years.23 HMRC would therefore not be drawn on what levels of compliance yield it should target in the coming years, either as a percentage of total revenues or in cash terms, beyond aiming for £36 billion in the current year. It told us this was due to uncertainty in the economy and inflationary pressures.24 18 Treasury Minutes, Government responses on the Thirty Fourth to the Thirty Sixth; the Thirty Eighth; and the Fortieth to the Forty Second reports from the Committee of Public Accounts: Session 2015–16, Cm 9323, July 2016 19 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hmrc-datalab 20 C&AG’s Report, para 2.2–2.3 21 Qq 35, 85; C&AG’s Report, para 11–12 22 Qq 35, 45–46, 85 23 Qq 85–86, 88; C&AG’s Report, para 2.8–2.9 24 Qq 89–95 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic 11 2 Understanding how to catch up following the pandemic Supporting taxpayers who want to pay their taxes correctly
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Government response AI summary
The government explicitly rejects the recommendation to target higher compliance yield, explaining that HMRC sets targets based on an agreed methodology with the Treasury and OBR to maintain a stable tax gap. HMRC prioritizes compliance risks, ensuring identified risks can still be addressed.
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HM Treasury
15
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC told us that the pandemic created difficulties for taxpayers, and that the economic situation since has continued to put pressure on them.25 HMRC’s strategy in recent years has increasingly focused on preventing non-compliance occurring in the first place, including by helping taxpayers get their tax affairs right.26
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HMRC told us that the pandemic created difficulties for taxpayers, and that the economic situation since has continued to put pressure on them.25 HMRC’s strategy in recent years has increasingly focused on preventing non-compliance occurring in the first place, including by helping taxpayers get their tax affairs right.26
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Government response AI summary
The government will continue flexible repayment practices and enhance the online 'Time to Pay' service with Spring Budget 2023 funding. This aligns with HMRC's strategy to help taxpayers manage their affairs and prevent non-compliance, supported by additional staff and private debt collection agency funding.
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HM Treasury
16
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
Following our previous recommendations on HMRC’s debt management practices during and after the pandemic, HMRC has made changes to its approach aimed at supporting people and businesses to pay what they owe and recovering debts more quickly. This includes tailoring its approach to each taxpayer’s circumstances and ability to pay, …
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Following our previous recommendations on HMRC’s debt management practices during and after the pandemic, HMRC has made changes to its approach aimed at supporting people and businesses to pay what they owe and recovering debts more quickly. This includes tailoring its approach to each taxpayer’s circumstances and ability to pay, and informing this with new data from credit reference agencies. HMRC has also added 500 staff to its debt management service. It told us that these efforts have improved its productivity at recovering overdue debts and that it has made strong progress to settle the tax debts amassed during the pandemic, which we welcome.27
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees with the committee's welcomed observation, confirming that flexible repayment practices are in place, online Time to Pay services are being improved, 500 debt management staff have been recruited, and additional funds will be provided for private sector debt collection.
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HM Treasury
17
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
However, HMRC acknowledged that, despite these improvements, its initial expectation that debt levels would reduce has not been borne out in practice. This is because of ongoing economic pressures affecting taxpayers, particularly small businesses. Instead, debt levels have risen again – from £39.4 billion in April 2022 to £45.7 billion …
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However, HMRC acknowledged that, despite these improvements, its initial expectation that debt levels would reduce has not been borne out in practice. This is because of ongoing economic pressures affecting taxpayers, particularly small businesses. Instead, debt levels have risen again – from £39.4 billion in April 2022 to £45.7 billion in November 2022.28
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Government response AI summary
The government has secured Spring Budget 2023 funding for online 'Time to Pay' service improvements and Spring Statement 2022 funding for 500 additional debt management staff. An additional £20 million will be provided in 2023-24 and 2024-25 to utilize private sector debt collection agencies to …
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HM Treasury
18
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC can also support taxpayers through its customer service functions, by answering questions or otherwise providing helpful information in a timely way. However, its customer services have also been struggling with high call volumes, particularly at certain times of year such as the January deadline for filing self-assessment returns.29 We …
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HMRC can also support taxpayers through its customer service functions, by answering questions or otherwise providing helpful information in a timely way. However, its customer services have also been struggling with high call volumes, particularly at certain times of year such as the January deadline for filing self-assessment returns.29 We have previously reported on a deterioration in service levels in the past few years.30 If people cannot contact HMRC when they need to, then some of those who need help to get their tax affairs right will not always be able to get support. We have also heard examples of people who want to put their affairs right but find it hard to do so because of HMRC’s approach. Examples have included inflexible repayment practices and confusing correspondence.31 25 Qq 35–36, 40, 84 26 C&AG’s Report, para 5 27 Qq 37–41, 44; Letter from Jim Harra, 24 January 2023 28 Q 41; Letter from Jim Harra, 24 January 2023 29 Q 103 30 Committee of Public Accounts, HMRC performance in 2021–22, Thirty-Third Report of Session 2022–23, HC 686, 11 January 2023 31 Qq 79, 102–103 12 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic Understanding the impact of HMRC’s compliance work
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Government response AI summary
The government will continue to offer flexible repayment practices, improve the online 'Time to Pay' service with Spring Budget 2023 funding, and use £20 million in 2023-24 and 2024-25 for private debt collection agencies. These measures aim to enhance support for taxpayers struggling with tax …
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HM Treasury
19
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC’s compliance yield estimate is an important measure of the impact of its compliance work. A good understanding of this performance is essential for identifying whether HMRC has the overall resources it needs, as well as whether it is deploying these resources to where they are most effective.32
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HMRC’s compliance yield estimate is an important measure of the impact of its compliance work. A good understanding of this performance is essential for identifying whether HMRC has the overall resources it needs, as well as whether it is deploying these resources to where they are most effective.32
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees with the importance of accurate yield measurement and will design a new sampling approach by June 2024 to allow for extrapolation of errors from TSAP reviews to the annual estimate of compliance yield. This will include considering options like aligning sampling to …
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HM Treasury
20
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC’s quality assurance arrangements involve testing 400 of its completed compliance cases each year. In 2021–22, 80 of these cases had errors in the compliance yield that HMRC had recorded. These errors included both overstated and understated figures, and occurred for a range of reasons including data input mistakes, incorrect …
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HMRC’s quality assurance arrangements involve testing 400 of its completed compliance cases each year. In 2021–22, 80 of these cases had errors in the compliance yield that HMRC had recorded. These errors included both overstated and understated figures, and occurred for a range of reasons including data input mistakes, incorrect calculations, or incorrect decisions on what should or should not be included. However, they were skewed towards overstating compliance yield. Out of £736 million of yield that was tested, the net effect of the errors was to overstate compliance yield by £59.7 million (8%).33
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees and will design a new sampling approach by June 2024 to allow for extrapolation of errors from TSAP reviews to the annual estimate of compliance yield. This will help address issues identified in quality assurance and enable estimation of official error impact …
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HM Treasury
21
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC’s 2021–22 testing also found seven cases where taxpayers had been overcharged following the completion of a compliance enquiry, by a total of £32 million. Almost of all of this was a single large overcharge, which HMRC identified before any payment was taken.34 However, most of the smaller overcharges were …
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HMRC’s 2021–22 testing also found seven cases where taxpayers had been overcharged following the completion of a compliance enquiry, by a total of £32 million. Almost of all of this was a single large overcharge, which HMRC identified before any payment was taken.34 However, most of the smaller overcharges were for individuals or small businesses, who might therefore have struggled to pay had HMRC not identified the error and corrected the position.35 HMRC told us that it has controls in place to prevent over-recording of yield, and that its testing has found a slight improvement in the quality of its casework in the past year. However, it acknowledged that the seven overcharges it identified was too many.36
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees with the observation, stating existing controls are in place to ensure accurate tax positions, including quality assurance, appeal processes, and complaint mechanisms, with a commitment to pay interest on overpayments by March 2024.
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HM Treasury
22
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Accepted
HMRC does not know to what extent the errors identified are representative of compliance yield as a whole being overstated. HMRC also cannot estimate how many taxpayers it is overcharging following compliance enquiries, or by how much. HMRC explained that it designed its sampling process to examine quality in all …
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HMRC does not know to what extent the errors identified are representative of compliance yield as a whole being overstated. HMRC also cannot estimate how many taxpayers it is overcharging following compliance enquiries, or by how much. HMRC explained that it designed its sampling process to examine quality in all areas of its casework, rather than to provide assurance on the overall estimate. Its approach means it cannot accurately extrapolate the errors or overcharges it finds to produce an overall estimate of their impact. HMRC told us it expects compliance yield to be materially correct but it cannot provide assurance that this is the case. Errors should be rare, and finding a lot of them in a sample may indicate a bigger problem that merits further testing. HMRC told us that it is reviewing how it can update its testing approach so that it can better estimate the extent of errors it makes, based on suggestions from the National Audit Office.37 Stopping the tax gap from growing
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Government response AI summary
The government accepts the recommendation and commits to designing a new sampling approach by June 2024 that allows for extrapolation of errors from reviewed cases to the annual compliance yield estimate. Once established, HMRC will develop a mechanism to estimate the impact of official error …
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HM Treasury
23
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
HMRC is funded to stop the tax gap from growing. The tax gap is an important measure of how much revenue may be missed—due to evasion, avoidance or non-payment —that could otherwise fund vital public services.38 32 C&AG’s Report, para 2.2, 2.14 33 Qq 57–58, 64–65; C&AG’s Report, para 2.12 …
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HMRC is funded to stop the tax gap from growing. The tax gap is an important measure of how much revenue may be missed—due to evasion, avoidance or non-payment —that could otherwise fund vital public services.38 32 C&AG’s Report, para 2.2, 2.14 33 Qq 57–58, 64–65; C&AG’s Report, para 2.12 34 Qq 56, 59, 67–70, Letter from Jim Harra, 9 February 2023 35 Letter from Jim Harra, 9 February 2023; C&AG’s Report, para 2.12 36 Qq 59–60 37 Qq 61–66; C&AG’s Report, para 2.13 38 Qq 1, 44, 90, 106; C&AG’s Report, para 2.18 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic 13
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the committee's observation, asserting that HMRC's funding is sufficient to maintain compliance performance and a stable tax gap, with investments already made to tackle serious tax fraud and compliance risks.
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HM Treasury
24
Conclusion
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
Due to the way it is estimated, the tax gap does not yet reflect the full impact of the pandemic and will not do so for some time. HMRC’s latest estimate is that the tax gap remained stable in 2020–21, at 5.1% of taxes theoretically owed. However, HMRC’s tax gap …
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Due to the way it is estimated, the tax gap does not yet reflect the full impact of the pandemic and will not do so for some time. HMRC’s latest estimate is that the tax gap remained stable in 2020–21, at 5.1% of taxes theoretically owed. However, HMRC’s tax gap estimates typically need to be revised over several years as it gets more data. HMRC told us that its 2020–21 estimate has a much larger range of uncertainty than normal, because of the impact the pandemic had on some of the key data sources it uses.39
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the committee's observation, stating that HMRC's funding levels are adequate, with a track record of investment in compliance to generate revenue and maintain a stable tax gap, as shown in the 2023 Measuring Tax Gaps publication.
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HM Treasury
25
Recommendation
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
Some measures that affect the tax gap have weakened since the start of the pandemic, indicating that the tax gap may grow in the coming years. Non-payment of taxes owed is one such component of the tax gap that HMRC expects will grow. Levels of debt and non-payment rose considerably …
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Some measures that affect the tax gap have weakened since the start of the pandemic, indicating that the tax gap may grow in the coming years. Non-payment of taxes owed is one such component of the tax gap that HMRC expects will grow. Levels of debt and non-payment rose considerably during the pandemic, and debt levels are not reducing as quickly as HMRC expected them to.40 Compliance yield, which reduces the tax gap, also saw a significant drop during the pandemic.41 HMRC’s Customer Compliance Group (CCG) produces planning estimates of the level of compliance yield it thinks it will need to achieve to stop the tax gap from growing, and the range of yield it thinks it could achieve. Its own planning estimates indicate that it is unlikely to generate enough compliance yield to stop the tax gap from growing in the next few years. The gap between the required level and HMRC’s mid-point planning estimate equates to around £17 billion in total over the three-year period. HMRC would need to achieve its upper estimate of compliance yield to stop the tax gap from growing, but in practice expects to achieve somewhere between its upper and mid-point estimates.42
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the committee's implication, asserting its commitment to ensure HMRC has sufficient funding to maintain compliance performance and tackle the tax gap. It highlights a £79 million investment in Autumn Statement 2022 for staff to combat tax fraud and risks among wealthy taxpayers, …
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HM Treasury
26
Recommendation
Forty-Ninth Report - Managing tax compl…
Rejected
We asked whether HMRC needed more resources to catch up on the impact of the pandemic and to keep the tax gap from growing, and whether it was looking to recruit more. HMRC acknowledged that it will be more challenging to maintain the tax gap than it has been in …
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We asked whether HMRC needed more resources to catch up on the impact of the pandemic and to keep the tax gap from growing, and whether it was looking to recruit more. HMRC acknowledged that it will be more challenging to maintain the tax gap than it has been in the recent past but did not indicate what contingency plans it had if its resources were insufficient.43 HMRC told us that it will be gradually reintegrating staff from COVID-19 work to tax compliance between April and September 2023.44 It also told us that it has recruited 4,800 staff to its compliance group in the past two years. However, it takes up to four years for new staff to be fully trained and to gain enough experience to be fully effective, due to the complex nature of tax legislation and investigations which require skills ranging from technical tax knowledge to project management.45 HMRC also argued that it has up to 20 years to pursue cases of suspected non-compliance during the pandemic. However, this only applies to cases of suspected fraud. For errors the period is less, and in some cases HMRC cannot go back more than four years.46 39 Qq 82–83, 93–95 40 Qq 35–36, 41, 81, 84 41 Qq 35, 85; C&AG’s Report, para 12 42 C&AG’s Report, para 18 43 Qq 44, 85–87 44 Q 43 45 Qq 44, 80; MFP0001 46 Qq 25, 85–87 14 Managing tax compliance following the pandemic
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the committee's suggestion regarding resource sufficiency, affirming its commitment to provide HMRC with adequate funding. It cites a £79 million investment from Autumn Statement 2022 to hire staff targeting serious tax fraud and wealthy taxpayers, emphasizing its strategic approach to deploying resources.
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HM Treasury