Source · Select Committees · Treasury Committee
Recommendation 18
18
Paragraph: 98
The Treasury’s analysis has been criticised for not providing modelling of the alternative to lockdowns.
Conclusion
The Treasury’s analysis has been criticised for not providing modelling of the alternative to lockdowns. There is evidence to suggest that in the absence of lockdown, people would have socially distanced to a large extent through fear of viral transmission and infection. As such, while a lockdown is a significant and costly imposition by Government, that cost when compared to the alternative with voluntary social distancing, may be less than many assume.
Paragraph Reference:
98
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
Your report makes a number of recommendations regarding the Government’s economic analysis relating to the impact of COVID-19. Since the onset of the pandemic, the Government has taken decisions based on the health, economic and social impact of COVID-19 and associated public health measures. The Government has also studied the outputs of the academic literature on epi-macro modelling and benefited from discussions with leading academics. The Government has published a significant amount of analysis of the health, economic and social impact of COVID-19 and public health measures throughout the pandemic. This includes the analysis that underpinned the steps announced as part of the Government’s Roadmap out of lockdown. For the economy, this included the impacts on GVA and jobs in those sectors affected by restrictions over the last year, as well as information about the distribution of those impacts. The Government also commissioned advice and modelling from SAGE and its sub-groups in order to inform the pace and sequencing of the Roadmap.4