Fuelling the future: motive power and connectivity

It is our view that the case for full electrification in private cars is ‘the received wisdom’, and therefore needs further scrutiny and investigation.

Given the existing private cars that will remain on the road for some time, drop- in replacement fuels from renewable sources could be a no-risk, very sensible and economically sound approach.

While maintaining an official line on technology neutrality with respect to achieving zero emissions in private cars, the Government is in fact ‘putting all its eggs in one basket’: battery EVs. The reality is that not everyone in the UK can afford a new or second-hand electric vehicle, and if they could, cannot easily charge one at home. The infrastructure is not adequate to deliver sufficient electricity to homes, and there are insufficient raw materials to produce the battery banks needed for all vehicles to be EVs. We therefore caution against the promotion of electric vehicles as being the only solution to reducing carbon emissions from private vehicles; as the cliff edge of 2030 (2035, 2040 and 2050) approaches and minds are concentrated, reality will bite.

We reiterate the message of our July 2021 report on zero emission vehicles that Government needs to take account of legacy petrol and diesel-powered motoring and continue to explore the potential of alternative fuels where possible. This includes the huge potential for sustainable fuels to provide a low-carbon option for conventional engines. A reality check is needed. High-end premium and supercar manufacturers and smaller bespoke and specialised manufacturers—which have a much smaller construction carbon and other energy and pollutant footprint compared to EV manufacturers—need direction, clear guidance, and regulation from the Department for Transport, sooner rather than later.

Furthermore, while long-haul aviation and international shipping are often identified as the most likely users of sustainable fuels, we believe that the Government must open-mindedly consider all alternative fuels for all modes of powered transport, including private cars.

All the propulsion alternatives have a significant role to play so the Government needs to stop demonising specific technologies that could really help. Addressing the existing fleet will be decisive in achieving the UK’s climate goals. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions right now by the use of increasing quantities of drop- in sustainable fuels enables us to address the existing fleet and minimise cost (and carbon emissions) through the use of existing infrastructure. It would also enable more socially equitable access to carbon reduction technologies for everyday transport as it would not be necessary to buy a new electric car and have access to charging infrastructure. However, sustainable fuels still produce emissions at point of use so offer no ‘apparent’ benefit in the current, misleading, legislative framework. 44 Fuelling the future: motive power and connectivity We need a mechanism to enable the carbon savings associated with sustainable fuels to count, which would incentivise investment, drive down costs and offer a better- managed and complementary set of solutions.

The continued focus on battery electric vehicles alone risks failing to meet the UK’s climate goals. Demand for more and more range from electric vehicles makes them very heavy and very expensive, tying up precious resources in an energy store that might rarely be used. Distributing those resources across more plug-in hybrid vehicles with smaller battery packs that enable 80 per cent of our journeys to be completed electrically yet retaining extended range using an ICE running on a sustainable fuel might be a better compromise.

The ideal solution may be to allow automotive companies to fix the problem and provide the solution by applying the right mix of technologies. Plugin hybrids (petrol and diesel) offer the best options when in urban areas they can make a switch to electric propulsion on entry (such as at low emission zones) or pay the charge and revert back to ICE (on sustainable/synthetic fuels) propulsion if required. They can also utilise such ICE propulsion outside of urban environments where they are very efficient and ‘cleaner’ over long distances and/or at higher average speeds, and hence ‘range anxiety’ becomes a thing of the past.

We recommended in our July 2021 report on zero emission vehicles that some of the £950 million rapid charging fund be used to provide fully future-proofed grid capacity, and that the Government work with National Grid to map the electricity network to assess potential weak areas. In October 2021 a proof-of-concept version of a National Energy Systems Map was published. We reiterate our previous recommendation that this kind of information be used to develop a plan to prevent ‘not-spots’ in grid capacity from emerging.

We believe there is a case for many people right across the country in all areas, but particularly in rural and isolated communities, to continue to drive wholly diesel or petrol-powered cars, or hybrids (or EVs if they wish). Over time they will very likely account for a negligible proportion of transport emissions. The cost of introducing EV charging infrastructure everywhere is completely unrealistic and will require massive amounts of taxpayers’ money through government subsidy for electricity generation, infrastructure provision and storage, and basic raw materials for battery production in order to be anywhere near acceptable as an alternative to ICE or hybrid personal vehicles, delivery, farming or construction vehicles.

We recommend that the Government publish its future of rural transport strategy as a matter of priority. The strategy should include the Government’s plan to ensure people living in rural areas have adequate access to charging infrastructure.

The Government should examine the roll-out of public charging networks in other European countries and in Scotland, to see how best to harness government expenditure on chargepoints—particularly in rural and more economically marginal locations—to help increase the pace of the rollout and increase coverage and EV-to- charger ratios.

There is not yet a solution for the decarbonisation of HGVs in heavier weight categories that travel long distances. We recommend that the Government publish a long-term HGV decarbonisation strategy as a matter of priority.

The UK Government should support the International Maritime Organization’s work to develop global standards for vessel construction that enable ships to utilise alternative fuels such as ammonia, synthetic fuels and hydrogen. The UK should use its influence at the IMO to ensure that, globally, the path forward for investors in alternative maritime fuels becomes more secure.

There is significant demand and potential for sustainable aviation fuels in the aviation sector: they are the most plausible option for significant decarbonisation of aviation in the short and medium terms. We welcome the SAF mandate in the Jet Zero strategy, but consider that further measures are needed to stimulate the progress required. The Government must introduce a Contracts for Difference model to stimulate uptake of SAF. The Government should also examine whether such a model could be used to incentivise the uptake of other sustainable aviation technologies such as hydrogen.

Freight transport and high-speed rail are the most significant decarbonisation challenges in the rail sector. To meet its objective to phase out all diesel-powered trains by 2040, the Government must increase the current pace of electrification set out in Network Rail’s traction decarbonisation plan. The lifespan of rolling stock alone means that any rail projects currently being developed that are not wholly electrified—such as East West Rail—place in doubt the achievability of the 2040 target.

As stated in our ‘Trains fit for the future?’ report, we recommend that the Department for Transport publish a long-term strategy for decarbonising the rail network as a matter of priority. This should include a vision for what proportion of the future network will use electrification, battery and hydrogen. That strategy should be supported by appropriate costings, a credible delivery plan, and enabling targets and milestones. These targets and milestones should clarify how the 2040 and 2050 targets will fit together.

The Government may not always be able to adhere to its technology agnostic policy as it seeks to achieve the target of net zero emissions by 2050. If that aspiration is to be fulfilled, it must introduce policies that enable a functioning market which encourages alternative fuel uptake. That will sometimes mean ‘picking winners’. A technology agnostic approach from the Government should not be used as an excuse for doing nothing to lead.

The technology agnostic approach has led to a lack of investment in alternative decarbonisation technologies by the private sector. A more nuanced approach to increasing the uptake of alternative fuels is required.

The Government must shift its ‘technology agnostic’ policy to a ‘targeted technology investment’ policy. Such a policy will provide the Government with the flexibility to make strategic investments in new technologies that offer evidenced solutions to lowering emissions, while allowing the Government to maintain a level of neutrality on the emission reduction approach in transport sectors which are currently difficult to decarbonise.