Report on the draft Climate Change Plan as it relates to agriculture and land use

The Committee highlights evidence from the agriculture industry suggesting that efforts to decarbonise the sector are being impacted by a lack of clarity regarding the Scottish Government’s agricultural reform programme. Given the strong relationship between future agricultural policy and the CCP, the Committee’s scrutiny of the agriculture chapter has also been hindered by delays to the Scottish Government’s rural support plan. As a consequence, the Committee cannot come to a view on the emissions reduction pathway for agriculture in the draft CCP. The Committee draws this to the attention of the NZET Committee.

Noting the Cabinet Secretary’s confirmation that the rural support plan will be published before dissolution, the Committee expects the final CCP to set out further details of how any policies set out in the rural support plan will assist with reducing emissions in the sector. The Committee also recommends its successor committee gives detailed scrutiny to the linkages between the rural support plan, the wider agricultural reform programme and the final CCP to determine whether these show sufficient leadership and ambition for the agriculture sector.

The Committee notes evidence from stakeholders and the Cabinet Secretary that suggests achieving a 45% uptake of mitigation measures will be challenging. As such, the Committee believes the final CCP must be clear at what point uptake will be assessed and any decisions on additional efforts required will be taken. To that end, the final CCP should be clear on whether there will be an 'early warning indicator' for agriculture.

The Committee also recommends the Scottish Government includes in the final CCP information relating to each mitigation measure it has modelled in the agriculture chapter, and their respective impacts on emissions reductions. This added transparency would allow the Committee and the wider public to evaluate more clearly the credibility of the Scottish Government's plans for the agriculture sector, including the Scottish Government’s assumption of a 45% uptake by 2030. The Cabinet Secretary told the Committee she did not believe there would be a problem with publishing this information.

In relation to proposals in the draft CCP targeted at reducing emissions from non-road machinery and fertilisers, the Committee heard evidence from industry that, while many farming businesses are already adopting low-emissions technologies, uptake remains slow due to efficacy and affordability. The Cabinet Secretary told the Committee these measures in the draft CCP are in early development. The Committee believes it would be helpful for the Scottish Government to provide further information on how it will progress these initiatives going forward, including what financial models it could deploy to support farmers with the start-up costs of investing in low-emissions technologies such as electric and alternative-fuelled tractors.

The Committee heard a range of views on the Scottish Government’s decision not to follow the CCC’s emissions pathway by reducing livestock numbers. Supporters of the decision raised the important economic and cultural identity of livestock farming in many rural communities, as well as the potential for offshoring livestock emissions to meet domestic demand. Concerns were raised, however, that given almost half of all agriculture emissions came from livestock production, the Scottish Government could not deliver its climate ambitions without dealing with the sector’s highest emitter. The Committee notes the Cabinet Secretary’s comment that reaching Net Zero means looking broadly across all sectors, and asks the NZET Committee to scrutinise how, as part of its wider consideration of the draft CCP, shortfalls from livestock emissions are being compensated for through further reductions in other sectors.

Greater integration of agriculture and land use policy was considered essential to most stakeholders in incentivising more farmers to carry out peatland and forestry activities on their units. The Cabinet Secretary sought to assure the Committee that efforts were being made to mainstream tree-planting and peatland restoration into future agricultural support. The Committee requests further details on the work the Scottish Government is undertaking to deliver this level of policy coherence.

The Committee shares the view of most stakeholders that the new targets on tree planting and peatland restoration in the draft CCP provide a clear commitment by the Scottish Government to develop these sectors over the long term. The Committee notes, however, that the rate of both activities has not increased as quickly as anticipated in the previous climate change plan update in 2020, though notable gains have been made in both areas. It also notes that a large proportion of the emissions reductions for future carbon budget periods result from a correction in the estimated emissions from certain types of peatlands, rather than from sequestration activities. The Committee draws this to the attention of the NZET Committee.

The Committee notes that, for peatlands, the targets in the draft CCP appear to be less ambitious than the CCC’s balanced pathway. For forestry, the draft CCP has pursued a different pathway to the CCC advice due to use of different modelling by the Scottish Government. The Committee believes it would be helpful for further information to be included in the final CCP on how the Scottish Government’s and the CCC’s modelling is different, and what this means for comparing the two trajectories.

The Committee highlights concern from academics that, without careful spatial planning and prioritisation, area-based targets might not always ensure peatland restoration and tree planting occurs in places where they will maximise emissions reductions and deliver co-benefits. The Cabinet Secretary said that having broad, area-based targets and focussing on high-emitting sites were not mutually exclusive concepts and “it is fundamentally about delivering them both”. While the Committee agrees with the Cabinet Secretary’s view, it believes the final CCP should more clearly specify how peatland restoration and tree planting sites will be prioritised, and include any spatial analysis or mapping exercises it has carried out to support targeted actions.

The Committee highlights evidence from industry stakeholders that a sustained level of public funding is essential to give confidence to forestry businesses and peatland specialists to invest in the skilled workforce and equipment needed to increase their capacity to deliver the Scottish Government’s LULUCF targets. The Committee heard how previous cuts to the Forestry Grants Scheme stalled progress in the sector’s woodland creation activities. The Committee requests further information on how the Scottish Government will finance tree planting and peatland restoration over the longer term, including its position on multi-annual funding.

The Committee heard a range of evidence in relation to the role of private finance in peatland restoration and woodland creation. Some stakeholders believed that developing natural capital markets for leveraging private finance is essential to accelerating progress, whilst others suggested that increased use of natural capital could result in unintended consequences. The Committee requests further information on the carbon contracts projects being piloted by the Scottish Government, including any initial findings on costs and benefits of this financial model.

The Committee recognises the important role farmers and crofters must play in accelerating progress on peatland restoration and tree-planting at the scale needed to deliver the Scottish Government’s LULUCF targets, and highlights evidence suggesting RLUPs could be an effective tool for developing a localised and spatial approach to land management to complement the national area-based LULUCF targets. The Committee notes the intention set out in the draft CCP to place RLUPs on a firmer footing and requests further information on the process and timescales to achieve this.