Source · National Audit Office

Building an effective and resilient Probation Service

Published: 24 Oct 2025 Recommendations: 15 Type: Value for Money Department: Ministry of Justice

Government must actively manage risks associated with its plan to boost weak performance in the Probation Service.

Dept: Ministry of Justice Topics: Crime, justice and lawPrisons and probation nao.org.uk →

Recommendations

15 items
Government response pending.

The NAO has not yet recorded a response to these recommendations. This report was published 24 October 2025.

Rec Recommendation Addressee Acceptance Implementation
1
To understand and effectively manage risks associated with the OFPS programme: HMPPS should carry out a detailed assessment of the potential impacts of setting an ?Open? risk appetite for its OFPS programme and articulate this clearly, including seeking agreement from senior departmental staff;
Ref Page 15, Paragraph 20, point a, first bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
10
where actual staff-reported activity timings exceed HMPPS?s expectations for tasks, set out how it plans to support staff to reduce the time spent on those tasks, for example by process improvements, changing policy requirements or more learning and development; it should then track whether reductions are realised;
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point c, third bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
11
set out contingency plans for if it does not achieve the reductions required, including any risks associated with its plans; and
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point c, fourth bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
12
assess whether its workforce plans will deliver the additional staffing levels assumed in its calculation of the capacity gap.
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point c, fifth bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
13
Where MoJ and HMPPS are making significant changes to the level and depth of supervision and support for different groups they should: build in robust monitoring and evaluation to assess the impact of changes in supervision and support, including whether lower- and medium-risk groups can access services that meet their needs;
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point d, first bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
14
assess whether CRS providers and wider organisations have the capacity and/or funding to absorb increases in demand; and
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point d, second bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
15
work with other government departments to monitor and react to any adverse impacts in other areas of government.
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point d, third bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
2
MoJ and HMPPS should agree clear risk thresholds to help manage trade-offs as the programme progresses and establish how it will measure whether it is breaching thresholds; and
Ref Page 15, Paragraph 20, point a, second bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
3
HMPPS should put contingency plans in place to mitigate any risks that materialise.
Ref Page 15, Paragraph 20, point a, third bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
4
To minimise the change load of OFPS on staff, HMPPS should: ensure it has a full understanding of how changes from OFPS and wider policy changes affect the service;
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point b, first bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
5
schedule and manage the rollout of changes to minimise the change load on staff, considering the need to balance any shorter-term reactive changes and longer-term strategic solutions;
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point b, second bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
6
set out a rollout schedule and training plan to communicate to staff when changes are due, and when they may need to complete any learning and development; and
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point b, third bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
7
implement regular feedback and review on change implementation, to give early warning of any need to adapt plans.
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point b, fourth bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
8
To ensure that HMPPS frees up sufficient capacity and to improve quality, it should: review the estimated capacity gap, in light of wider justice system developments, and ensure its calculations factor in any headroom needed to facilitate improvements in quality;
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point c, first bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending
9
put in place mechanisms to validate whether changes are achieving the estimated reductions in workload at a national level;
Ref Page 16, Paragraph 20, point c, second bullet
Ministry of Justice Pending