Recommendation 1
IOPC recommendationThe IOPC recommends that North Wales Police should incorporate the dangers of confirmation bias, encourage critical questioning, challenging assumptions, and the importance of exercising professional curiosity in matters of concern for welfare and Missing Person investigations. The force should ensure that the issue is covered in training and consider an appropriate methodology of how officer bias and assumptions can be challenged.
This follows an IOPC investigation where neighbours reported a male in distress up on the roof of their terraced houses 'off his head on drugs' and asking for police to be called. He was unsuitably dressed for inclement weather and wearing one shoe. The male made off prior to police arrival and his whereabouts thereafter could not be established. There was evidence that officers assumed from the outset that the male was evading the police and had gone to ground having made off because he believed he would be arrested for criminal damage to the roofs and TV aerials. The male was well known to police and several officers had experience of his evading arrest in the past when wanted. He was later reported missing and was found dead in a local river some days later. Arguably, if officers had taken a more questioning approach, they could have considered that it was equally possible in the circumstances that no one had seen him in the intervening period because he had come to harm.
‘Confirmation bias is ‘the tendency to seek, attend to and interpret information in a way that is consistent with our preconceptions, including expectations and pre-existing theories’ (College of Policing, 'Conducting effective investigations' PDF , July 2022). College of Policing Authorised Professional Practice (APP) states that 'Officers and staff should exercise professional curiosity to actively identify and investigate vulnerability-related risks, so they can deliver the appropriate policing response. Professional curiosity includes: exploring and understanding what is happening by asking questions and maintaining an open mind' ( College of Policing 'Curiosity' web page ).
Recommendation accepted
This recommendation is accepted and action is being taken.
In understanding the conclusions of this investigation, the issues that can be caused by confirmation bias are recognised, and how there is always a need for professional curiosity. The force is developing HYDRA learning packages specifically around managing missing person occurrences for Officers and Supervisors in which these specific issues will be covered.