Independent Advisory Panel on Deaths in Custody

Prison Overcrowding and Deaths in England and Wales: Findings from a Predictive Analysis and Modelling Study

Published 5 September 2025 Sector Prisons & Probation Type Rapid Evidence Collection Recommendations 3 No formal response recorded

Summary

Summary written by this site
Predictive analysis examining the association between prison overcrowding and deaths in custody (2014-2024). Projects that self-inflicted deaths could increase by 21% by 2029. Contains 3 strategic recommendations.

Government response

Response summary written by this site
No formal government response published. Report published September 2025.

Where the recommendations stand

Status recorded on this site (3 recommendations)

  • Open 3

Addressees

3 named
  • NHSE, HMPPS, MoJ (1)
  • HMPPS (1)
  • MoJ, HMPPS (1)

Recommendations

All 3 recommendations

Recommendations 3

Recommendation 1

Status recorded on this site: Open

Addressed to NHSE, HMPPS, MoJ

Recommendation (the panel's words)
Expand healthcare provision, particularly mental health services, in high-risk environments such as Category B male prisons.

No response text is recorded for this recommendation.

Recommendation 2

Status recorded on this site: Open

Addressed to HMPPS

Recommendation (the panel's words)
Target suicide and self-harm prevention in prisons with occupancy rates at or above 100%.

No response text is recorded for this recommendation.

Recommendation 3

Status recorded on this site: Open

Addressed to MoJ, HMPPS

Recommendation (the panel's words)
Enable establishment-level research by allowing routine data sharing with independent research teams to better understand mortality risks and how to mitigate them.

No response text is recorded for this recommendation.