Recommendation 36

HM Government · verbatim extract Deferred

The Teacher Workforce Model estimates supply of teachers through all entrant routes, and retention. Targets published by DfE specifically relate to recruitment through Postgraduate ITT (PGITT), which is only one entrant route into teaching (around 40-50% of entrants to teaching are trained via PGITT each year, the remaining 50-60% come from alternative recruitment streams 3 ) and where we have direct levers to influence outcomes. When setting PGITT targets, the TWM factors in all teaching inflows and outflows, with residual teacher demand met through the PGITT target. As such, year on year changes in targets should be assessed in the context of broader teacher recruitment and retention trends. For example, if there was a greater flow of teachers via the returner route, this would partially offset the need to bring in teachers via PGITT, leading to a reduced PGITT target. Similarly, forecasted falls in teacher leaver rates, could further reduce the need for newly trained teachers. To help mitigate supply challenges, the model uses an adjustment to targets to attempt to counter under-supply in specific subjects by considering the net impact of both recent recruitment (including returners and those that are new to the sector), and retention. If the model estimates a future undersupply for a subject, targets would be increased to attempt to address this. If such an under-supply was to be successfully eliminated through stronger recruitment in future, the adjustment would be removed from future targets. This target setting methodology helps to account for recent under-supply of teachers using a holistic assessment of all in and outflows for the workforce. Finally, as recruitment to all subjects is unlimited, and ITT places are not allocated, lower targets would not in themselves necessarily result in lower levels of recruitment or a worsening supply picture. If any new policies require a change in teacher numbers, for example, the government’s pledge to recruit an additional 6,500 new expert teachers, recruitment targets would be calculated to reflect any additional requirements. This may not necessarily lead to higher targets given targets are driven by a range of factors beyond new policies, such as pupil projections and teacher retention. We know there is further work to do to increase the supply of maths and other shortage subject teachers, but we have already taken action. We are offering increased bursaries worth £29,000 tax-free and increased scholarships worth £31,000 tax-free for maths trainee teachers. We are also offering a Targeted Retention Incentive worth up to £6,000 after-tax for maths teachers in the first five years of their careers who work in disadvantaged schools, which is a doubling of the previous retention payments available.