Conclusion 125

Professor Clarke warned us in April 2023 that the implications of the Ukraine war were “taking time to filter through to Governments.”251 One of the most obvious examples of this is the length of time it took to conclude a contract for an increase in production of 155 mm artillery shells.252 This is despite regular pleas from Ukraine for these shells in the Spring of 2023.253 It was first reported that the Government had issued a letter of intent (telling industry that it intended to purchase more artillery shells) in November 2022254 but it took 9 months of negotiation before a contract was finally signed in July 2023.255 When we raised this with the Minister for the Armed Forces, he told us that the delay had been caused by the lack of a “going-concern production line and there was some debate about how the manufacturing capacity was going to be funded”. The contract, when agreed, was a multi-year contract which specified a number of shells to be delivered each year ensuring the long-term viability of the production line, but the Minister acknowledged that it had demonstrated a need to change the way in which the MOD approaches procurement.256 There are possible lessons to be learned from the pace at which our US allies have increased capacity and production. Box 5: Timelines of contracting for NLAWs and 155 shells NLAW • Letter of intent presented to Saab as Authorisation to Proceed: September 2022 • Contract to Saab: 7 December 2022 • Delivery from July 2023 155 Shells • Letter of intent presented to BAE as Authorisation to Proceed: November 2022 • Contract to BAE: 11 July 2023 • Delivery: Q1 2025 Source: Compiled by Defence Committee staff