Recommendation 8

Equally important is understanding the human aspects of war. There was clearly a failed assessment of Putin’s will to fight in the run- up to the invasion of Ukraine. The UK and NATO should focus on developing a better understanding of Putin’s strategy and intentions—including what influence others (like China) may have on his decision-making—while strengthening de-escalation mechanisms. This would provide for more robust deterrence, helping decision-makers distinguish between posturing and the actual risk of nuclear weapons being used, while mitigating against escalation by accident.