Recommendation 67

Given that it is four years since the commitment to double the maximum prison term for tax fraud was made, and the importance of a robust evidence base for policy development, we feel that the work to understand the deterrent effect of HMRC’s criminal investigations resulting in prosecution should have been undertaken sooner—and in any event before the draft legislation was published in July 2023. In the absence of any such analysis, we do not see what justification there can be for the change in policy and are sceptical about the deterrent effect of doubling the maximum sentence for tax fraud.