Recommendation 2

NHS England’s improvement plans rely on better staff recruitment and retention to address significant shortfalls in the NHS workforce, but we are not convinced that NHS England’s current approach will achieve its very optimistic assumptions. NHS England has identified a potential shortfall of 260,000 to 360,000 staff by 2036–37, compared with a current shortfall of approximately 150,000 full-time equivalents. It intends to address this through ramping up recruitment, improving retention, and reforming work and training practices. NHS staff are currently experiencing very high levels of physical and mental ill health, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the most recent 5% sickness absence rate reported for 2022–23 above the long-term average of 4.2%. NHS England estimates that the rate of staff turnover in the health service was 9% in 2022–23. NHS England hopes to retain 130,000 staff who would otherwise leave the NHS over the next 15 years and stated this will be cost neutral. However, the realism of the assumptions underpinning this aspiration seems highly doubtful, given NHS England has identified multiple dependencies on other factors and unknowns. Recommendation 2: NHS England should write to the Committee within six months to provide an update on progress with reducing staff shortfalls and improving retention rates. This update should include details of action it has taken and an assessment of whether its original assumptions have proved accurate. 6 Access to urgent and emergency care