Recommendation 27

As these additional prisoners progress through their sentences, there will be higher demand for resettlement services. MoJ’s central estimate in its recent modelling work on forecast volumes of prison leavers starting their supervision in the community shows that, while projections are uncertain, the Probation Service may need to supervise around 5,900 additional prison leavers by March 2025. This corresponds to an increase of around 10% compared with HMPPS’s existing caseload of around 60,900 in September 2022.69 The NAO recommended that HMPPS develops a long-term strategy to manage the anticipated increase in demand for resettlement services.70 68 Qq 101–102 69 C&AG’s Report, para 3.19 70 C&AG’s Report, para 30f Resettlement support for prison leavers 17