Recommendation 24

MoJ told us several times that the prison estate is under “exceptional” pressure to meet current demands on capacity.60 At the end of March 2023, the prison population was at around 99% (84,400) of safe capacity (85,500).61 While projections are uncertain, the MoJ expects significant increases in the prison population in the near term, primarily due to the impact of higher demand caused by increases in the number of police officers and increases in the duration of serious offenders’ prison sentences. MoJ forecasts that the prison population could reach somewhere in the range of 93,100 to 106,300 by March 2027, an increase of 10% to 26% compared to March 2023.62