Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 21
21
Accepted
HMPPS lacks a mature evidence base for new investment impacts and evaluation plans.
Recommendation
Good evaluation practice emphasises the importance of understanding how a new intervention is expected to achieve the intended outcomes and the need to plan evaluation at the design stage before implementing it.48 But the NAO found that HMPPS does not yet have a mature evidence base for the impact of its new areas of investment, and its evaluation plans may not provide the evidence it needs.49 MoJ explained that deciding where and how to curb spending is easier in areas where its resettlement initiatives are more developed.50 HMPPS acknowledged that many of its evaluations are still in the early stages but told us it had hired 40 new analysts to support the work.51
Government Response Summary
The government accepted the recommendation, stating it is implemented, with detailed evaluation plans now in place for HMPPS investments. Impact evaluations are expected to be complete by Summer 2024, and interim findings from outcomes data will inform early findings by Autumn 2024, with continuous development of the evidence base to guide future investment decisions.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
5.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 5.2 Detailed evaluation plans, based on best practice set out in HM Treasury’s Magenta Book, are now in place to assess the effectiveness of HMPPS investment across key elements of resettlement activity. The agency is taking a proportionate approach where interventions are subject to evaluation, prioritising those where existing evidence is limited, sample size is sufficient, and cost is high. 5.3 By summer 2024, impact evaluations are expected to be complete, and findings will be available to inform planning around key interventions. Interim findings will also provide insight into the effectiveness of HMPPS’s Commissioned Rehabilitative Services (CRS), to inform future service development. 5.4 For some initiatives, findings on impact will only be available beyond 2024, due to the time required to reach a sufficient sample size and for sufficient time to pass once someone has been released from prison in order to measure whether they have reoffended. In these cases, the MoJ will use monitoring data and process evaluations to provide interim findings. By autumn 2024, outcomes data will inform early findings on the effectiveness of resettlement initiatives such as Prison Employment Leads, Employment Hubs and Resettlement Passports. 5.5 The agency is continuously developing and improving its evidence base on what works to reduce reoffending, which will inform the next spending review. Where impact and economic evaluations have concluded, the MoJ and HMPPS will consider whether the evidence supports continued investment. For interventions where evaluation is ongoing, it will review whether emerging evidence supports continuing the intervention until evaluation evidence is available to support ongoing investment.