Conclusion 6

Unprecedented pressures on the prison estate threaten the quality of resettlement services today and in the future. The prison estate is under “exceptional” pressure to meet current demands on capacity. At the end of March 2023, the prison population was at around 99% (84,400) of safe capacity (85,500). MoJ forecasts that the prison population could reach somewhere in the range of 93,100 to 106,300 by March 2027, an increase of 10% to 26% compared to March 2023. MoJ and HMPPS are adamant there will always be space to accommodate prisoners without compromising safety. However, they accept that the ongoing lack of “headroom” is hampering much needed refurbishment across the prison estate, and emergency solutions will cost the taxpayer more than traditional prison accommodation. MoJ also says that inflation means it will be “very challenging” to build new prison capacity and increase the number of staff in the prison and probation service. As the prison population grows, it will inevitably add pressure to already strained resettlement services within prisons and the community. HMPPS does not currently have a long-term strategy to manage the anticipated increase in demand for resettlement services. Recommendation 6: The Ministry of Justice should write to us within six months with its latest 5 to 10 year projections for: • its prison population and its safe prison capacity; • bringing six new prisons online; and • the level of demand for resettlement services. 8 Resettlement support for prison leavers 1 Performance of resettlement services