Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 16
16
Accepted
Environment Agency needs improved surface water modelling, with NaFRA2 enhancing flood risk assessment.
Conclusion
The Agency told us it needed better surface water modelling and mapping and described how its new national flood risk assessment model (NaFRA2), which it expects to be completed by the end of 2024, will help. It expects NaFRA2 will improve its understanding of surface water flood risk as well as more detail for other types of flooding, for example by giving a prediction of the depth of flooding. NaFRA2 uses a different methodology from the previous assessment model, building up an assessment of risk from local models and will allow more accurate tracking of changes in risk over time.29
Government Response Summary
The government confirms the Environment Agency is working with Defra to develop a new National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA2), due for publication by the end of 2024, which will improve surface water modelling and mapping by establishing a new risk baseline for reporting change from 2025 onwards.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
1.2 The Environment Agency (the Agency or EA) has been working with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA, the department) to develop a methodology for measuring and reporting ‘net’ change in flood risk at a national level, examples of which include (but are not limited to) climate change, asset deterioration and development in the flood plain (for increasing risk) and new defences (for decreasing risk). The new National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA2), due for publication by the end of 2024, will introduce this capability and will establish a new risk baseline against which change can be measured. The Agency expects to be able to report “net” change in risk from 2025 onwards, in line with the timescales agreed with the National Audit Office following their 2020 report Managing Flood Risk.