Recommendation 26

Assessing the deterrent effect, and thus value for money, of the scheme will be complex. The Home Office recognised that it will be difficult to isolate the impact of the Rwanda partnership from other government policies intended to stop small boat crossings and reduce illegal migration, such as the agreement with Albania to return failed asylum seekers, work with French authorities to prevent boat crossings and wider work with countries from where asylum seekers originate.44 We asked the Home Office about its progress in developing a methodology to assess the deterrent effect and therefore determine value for money of the scheme. The Home Office told us that it had “not yet set out exactly what will go into the assessment” as it had not begun the flights.45 It explained that, given the variables involved, and complexity of demonstrating causality, it was planning to undertake a combination of qualitative and quantitative work to assess the scheme’s impact. This will include understanding the motivations of individuals who have not made crossings and the way that criminal gangs operate. However, despite the complexity of the task, it had not yet determined how to collect data on people that would have come, but now are not.46 41 Qq 114, 117–118, 143–144 42 HM Treasury, Accounting Officer Assessments – Guidance, May 2023 para 1.2 43 Qq 113, 117, 148; C&AG’s Report. UK-Rwanda partnership, para 1.8 44 Qq 114, 120 45 Qq 146–147 46 Qq 145, 148–151 Asylum Accommodation and UK-Rwanda partnership 17