Conclusion 13

We were concerned by the Home Office’s assessment of the set-up costs to convert the two former RAF bases to accommodation. At the outset, the Home Office estimated that such costs would be £5 million for each site, but the costs increased to £49 million at Wethersfield and £27 million so far at Scampton. We asked the Home Office how it got its estimates so wrong. It told us it was dealing with a “national emergency” and that it considered that it “should be doing what our colleagues during Covid had done”. It explained that it had decided to “press on quickly” to increase its stock of accommodation and to take a “novel and creative” approach to setting up the sites. The Home Office acknowledged there was “a very significant optimism bias” in its estimates and some unforeseen costs, but repeatedly stated that the Home Office was working “at pace”.20 The Home Office listed some of the unforeseen costs that arose, such as gas and electrical requirements, and fire requirements, remedial works, improving security and installing CCTV. We questioned why these elements had not been foreseen. The Home Office stressed again that the government needed to find accommodation that was not previously available because it was spending too much on hotels. It told us that it only carried out non- intrusive surveys and pre due-diligence checks before purchasing the sites. We reflected that if a similar sort of assessment were produced in the private sector, such shortfalls might have resulted in negligence claims. The Home Office acknowledged its mistakes, and said that it did not have the right expertise on the programme at the time, and that some of the problems were “definitely avoidable at the time”. It said it had now recruited very experienced programme directors and sought more external advice.21