Recommendation 5

The Home Office does not yet know how it will evaluate the impact and value for money of the Rwanda partnership. The success of the Rwanda partnership is dependent on whether it deters people from making dangerous and illegal journeys to the UK, including small boat crossings. The Home Office estimates that illegal Asylum Accommodation and UK-Rwanda partnership 7 entries need to fall by one third from 2022 levels for the Rwanda partnership to be considered value for money. However, measuring the deterrent effect of the partnership will be complex as it will require an understanding of: the motivations of asylum seekers (including why they are not coming to the UK); the impact of other government policies to deter illegal entry to the UK; and the full costs of the Rwanda partnership and asylum accommodation in the UK. Despite the deterrent effect being critical to the partnership’s success, the Home Office has not yet worked out how it will measure success or what data it will need. Recommendation 5: As a matter of urgency, the Home Office should develop a robust evaluation strategy to assess the deterrent impact of the third country asylum processing policy, carefully considering whether it is possible to assess the success of this policy in isolation. It should also explain how it intends to assess value for money.