Conclusion 3

For some time now, MoJ has been failing to adequately forecast increases in the number and mix of cases being sent to the Crown Court, reducing its ability to plan how the courts system may need to adapt to meet the varying caseload. MoJ carries out modelling to project likely numbers of new cases coming to the Crown Court, which it uses to inform its policy–making decisions. MoJ recognises that the increasing Crown Court backlog is due to the rising rate of new cases resulting from an increase in the number of police officers, and to the increasing proportion of more complex cases. Despite MoJ knowing in advance that government was planning on greatly increasing the number of police, and receiving funding specifically to meet the consequent rise in new criminal cases, it failed to adequately forecast the scale of the increase nor prepare the Crown Court for the increase in workload. It will not have helped that for two years between July 2021 and July 2023 the Criminal Justice Board, which brings together partners from across the criminal justice system to share information and plan collaboratively, did not meet. We were disappointed 5 to learn that MoJ expects that the rate of new cases will continue to outstrip the Crown Court’s ability to hear cases system over the next year, although it would not be drawn on how high it forecasts the backlog will be in a year’s time. recommendation a. MoJ should make better use of the data available to it to improve its approach to forecasting and understanding of future Crown Court cases. b. MoJ and HMCTS should use its improved forecasts to more quickly plan and implements changes to the courts system–its processes, people and infrastructure–to better meet the future caseload.