Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 3
3
Accepted
Improve data-driven forecasting of Crown Court cases to adapt court system processes.
Conclusion
For some time now, MoJ has been failing to adequately forecast increases in the number and mix of cases being sent to the Crown Court, reducing its ability to plan how the courts system may need to adapt to meet the varying caseload. MoJ carries out modelling to project likely numbers of new cases coming to the Crown Court, which it uses to inform its policy–making decisions. MoJ recognises that the increasing Crown Court backlog is due to the rising rate of new cases resulting from an increase in the number of police officers, and to the increasing proportion of more complex cases. Despite MoJ knowing in advance that government was planning on greatly increasing the number of police, and receiving funding specifically to meet the consequent rise in new criminal cases, it failed to adequately forecast the scale of the increase nor prepare the Crown Court for the increase in workload. It will not have helped that for two years between July 2021 and July 2023 the Criminal Justice Board, which brings together partners from across the criminal justice system to share information and plan collaboratively, did not meet. We were disappointed 5 to learn that MoJ expects that the rate of new cases will continue to outstrip the Crown Court’s ability to hear cases system over the next year, although it would not be drawn on how high it forecasts the backlog will be in a year’s time. recommendation a. MoJ should make better use of the data available to it to improve its approach to forecasting and understanding of future Crown Court cases. b. MoJ and HMCTS should use its improved forecasts to more quickly plan and implements changes to the courts system–its processes, people and infrastructure–to better meet the future caseload.
Government Response Summary
The government agrees and commits to regularly reviewing its CJS projections to incorporate latest data, interventions, and evidence, and will keep its data use under continual review. Specific actions include developing the “OneCrown” single data pipeline and reviewing future demand scenarios with the Home Office and CPS.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. understood about the system. They are used to aid policy development, capacity planning and resource allocation within MoJ, HMCTS and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS). MoJ is committed to regularly reviewing its projections for the CJS, ensuring they capture: • Latest data and trends on demand and activity; • New interventions in the system e.g. court capacity changes, new operational policies or legislation that has recently received royal assent; • Latest evidence and insight on future expected activity agreed with partners across the CJS. Over the period reviewed by the National Audit Office, the accuracy of the projections was primarily affected by a combination of unforeseen events (e.g. industrial action), and areas where assumptions about the future had a particularly high degree of uncertainty (e.g. the duration of pandemic impacts on the CJS and the impact of the rapid expansion in the number of police officers). Nevertheless, MoJ is committed to keeping its use of data, evidence and assumption setting under continual review. This includes: • Development and use in projections of the “OneCrown” single data pipeline to improve the coherence and quality of data on courts. • Future demand scenarios reviewed in collaboration with the Home Office (HO) and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) considering the latest evidence on the factors that influence charge activity in policing (e.g. see chapter 2 of Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029 - GOV.UK).