Select committee: Public Accounts Committee
Conclusion 13
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Published 14 Mar 2025
Addressed to HM Treasury
Public Accounts Committee Prison estate capacity All items in this report Report on parliament.uk ↗ Inquiry on parliament.uk ↗
Conclusion (the committee's words)
According to its December 2024 statement on prison capacity, in its central forecast MoJ will run out of capacity again by early 2026 and will be 5,400 places short by November 2027.40 This is lower than the 12,400 places shortfall reported by the NAO.41 MoJ confirmed this is because its forecasts now assume that its early release scheme (SDS40), which set the automatic release point for some prisoners to be when they had served 40% of their sentence instead of 50%, will remain in place to 2029.42 The government had implemented the scheme as a temporary release measure in September 2024 in response to a critical shortage of prison places.43 MoJ launched a sentencing review on 21 October 2024. The aims of this review include ending the prisons crisis and ensuring no government is forced into the emergency release of prisoners again.44 MoJ published part one of the review on 18 February 2025, which included an analysis of trends in custody and set out principles for effective sentencing.45
From: Public Accounts Committee, 15th Report - Prison estate capacity (HC 366), 14 March 2025
Government response
The government responded to the whole report on 16 May 2025.
Summary written by Accountability Index from the government's response. It is not the government's own words.The government agrees with most of the Committee's recommendations on prison capacity, disagrees with two, and reports several as implemented in April 2025.
- On lessons learned, HMPPS is "committed to reviewing" its Lessons Learned Strategy and Log on a minimum bi-annual basis, with the next review point in October 2025.
- It disagrees with the recommendation for a business case on the maintenance backlog, stating that future investment decisions and business cases "will depend on the outcome of the ongoing Spending Review round".
- It disagrees with the recommendation on evaluating the impact of capacity pressures on risk assessments for new prisoners, stating "it is not possible to evaluate the impact" but that HMPPS will continue to monitor their completeness.
- It agrees to update the Committee within two months of the Sentencing Review's next phase on the forecast prison place shortage, the maintenance backlog and fire safety.