Recommendation 13

According to its December 2024 statement on prison capacity, in its central forecast MoJ will run out of capacity again by early 2026 and will be 5,400 places short by November 2027.40 This is lower than the 12,400 places shortfall reported by the NAO.41 MoJ confirmed this is because its forecasts now assume that its early release scheme (SDS40), which set the automatic release point for some prisoners to be when they had served 40% of their sentence instead of 50%, will remain in place to 2029.42 The government had implemented the scheme as a temporary release measure in September 2024 in response to a critical shortage of prison places.43 MoJ launched a sentencing review on 21 October 2024. The aims of this review include ending the prisons crisis and ensuring no government is forced into the emergency release of prisoners again.44 MoJ published part one of the review on 18 February 2025, which included an analysis of trends in custody and set out principles for effective sentencing.45