Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 21
21
Accepted
Modelling for dental recovery plan proved unreliable and lacked robust quality assurance
Conclusion
Given this error, NHSE assured us that additional analytical resources would be put in place for the dental service, which would in future be designated a “business–critical model”.59 We were told that there had been 51 DHSC, Faster, simpler and fairer: our plan to recover and reform NHS dentistry, published 7 February 2024 52 C&AG’s Report, para 12 53 Q 57 54 Letter from the Interim Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health and Social Care and the Chief Executive Officer at NHS England relating to the modelling error in the plan to reform NHS Dentistry, 11 February 2025 55 C&AG’s Report, Figure 10 56 Letter from the Interim Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health and Social Care and the Chief Executive Officer at NHS England relating to the modelling error in the plan to reform NHS Dentistry, 11 February 2025 57 C&AG’s Report, para 13 58 Letter from the Interim Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health and Social Care and the Chief Executive Officer at NHS England relating to the modelling error in the plan to reform NHS Dentistry, 11 February 2025 59 Q 2 14 quality assurance in place on the figures in the plan, although we note that the NAO found a lack of analysis on why the costs between initiatives were allocated as they were and that it was unclear how NHSE’s models had arrived at the final numbers included and published in the plan.60 Concerns about the quality of the modelling involved were raised by the Health and Social Care Committee in March 2024, when the then responsible minister acknowledged that there was a “high likelihood” of the modelling not being reliable.61 Delivering changes at a local or central level
Government Response Summary
The government has put additional analytical resources into dental modelling, is undertaking a lessons learned exercise to be reported by Summer 2025, and has incorporated dental modelling into its "Business Critical Model" process from April 2025 to improve quality assurance, consistent with assurances given.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
3.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented: June 2025 3.2 NHSE has immediately put additional short-term analytical resources into its Dental analytical work supporting the modelling of dental contract changes and reform. In addition, NHSE are undertaking a lessons learnt exercise to fully understand the key causes of the modelling error, and how to decrease the risk of similar problem occurring in the future. The outcome will be an internal report documenting this and setting out the recommendations for improvement. This is due in Summer 2025. 3.3 In the short term, with the integration of NHSE and DHSC the analytical teams are now working more closely together which provides the opportunity for greater levels of analytical quality assurance. The level of analytical input into dental analysis in the medium term, is likely to be determined as part of the work involved with integrating NHSE and DHSC. 3.4 NHSE has an established standard “Business Critical Model” process for assessing all modelling work. As part of this assessment some specific models may be designated as business critical where they have the potential for significant patient, financial or operational impact. These models will receive additional scrutiny and assurance, this process is overseen by the Business Critical Models Oversight Group (BCMOG). 3.5 From April 2025, dental modelling relating to future changes to the contract was incorporated within this process, overseen by the BCMOG.