Recommendation 21

Given this error, NHSE assured us that additional analytical resources would be put in place for the dental service, which would in future be designated a “business–critical model”.59 We were told that there had been 51 DHSC, Faster, simpler and fairer: our plan to recover and reform NHS dentistry, published 7 February 2024 52 C&AG’s Report, para 12 53 Q 57 54 Letter from the Interim Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health and Social Care and the Chief Executive Officer at NHS England relating to the modelling error in the plan to reform NHS Dentistry, 11 February 2025 55 C&AG’s Report, Figure 10 56 Letter from the Interim Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health and Social Care and the Chief Executive Officer at NHS England relating to the modelling error in the plan to reform NHS Dentistry, 11 February 2025 57 C&AG’s Report, para 13 58 Letter from the Interim Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health and Social Care and the Chief Executive Officer at NHS England relating to the modelling error in the plan to reform NHS Dentistry, 11 February 2025 59 Q 2 14 quality assurance in place on the figures in the plan, although we note that the NAO found a lack of analysis on why the costs between initiatives were allocated as they were and that it was unclear how NHSE’s models had arrived at the final numbers included and published in the plan.60 Concerns about the quality of the modelling involved were raised by the Health and Social Care Committee in March 2024, when the then responsible minister acknowledged that there was a “high likelihood” of the modelling not being reliable.61 Delivering changes at a local or central level