Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 19
19
Accepted
Significant error identified in initial modelling of dental recovery plan, underestimating New Patient Premium cost
Conclusion
Shortly before our evidence session in February we received a letter from DHSC and NHSE explaining that an error had been identified in their initial modelling of the dental recovery plan.54 The error related to the cost of the NPP, which NHSE and DHSC had estimated would be £164 million for an additional 1.13 million courses of treatment in 2024–25.55 Their modelling did not, however, account for the cost of the premium for new patients who would have seen an NHS dentist in 2024–25 without the additional incentive. Factoring this in meant that the £164 million attributed to the NPP would only be able to deliver 690,000 additional treatments. Delivering all 1.13 million additional treatments would cost an additional £33 million.56
Government Response Summary
The government has put additional analytical resources into dental modelling, is undertaking a lessons learned exercise to be reported by Summer 2025, and has incorporated dental modelling into its "Business Critical Model" process from April 2025 to improve quality assurance following the identified error.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
3.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented: June 2025 3.2 NHSE has immediately put additional short-term analytical resources into its Dental analytical work supporting the modelling of dental contract changes and reform. In addition, NHSE are undertaking a lessons learnt exercise to fully understand the key causes of the modelling error, and how to decrease the risk of similar problem occurring in the future. The outcome will be an internal report documenting this and setting out the recommendations for improvement. This is due in Summer 2025. 3.3 In the short term, with the integration of NHSE and DHSC the analytical teams are now working more closely together which provides the opportunity for greater levels of analytical quality assurance. The level of analytical input into dental analysis in the medium term, is likely to be determined as part of the work involved with integrating NHSE and DHSC. 3.4 NHSE has an established standard “Business Critical Model” process for assessing all modelling work. As part of this assessment some specific models may be designated as business critical where they have the potential for significant patient, financial or operational impact. These models will receive additional scrutiny and assurance, this process is overseen by the Business Critical Models Oversight Group (BCMOG). 3.5 From April 2025, dental modelling relating to future changes to the contract was incorporated within this process, overseen by the BCMOG.