Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 19
19
Significant error identified in initial modelling of dental recovery plan, underestimating New Patient Premium cost
Conclusion
Shortly before our evidence session in February we received a letter from DHSC and NHSE explaining that an error had been identified in their initial modelling of the dental recovery plan.54 The error related to the cost of the NPP, which NHSE and DHSC had estimated would be £164 million for an additional 1.13 million courses of treatment in 2024–25.55 Their modelling did not, however, account for the cost of the premium for new patients who would have seen an NHS dentist in 2024–25 without the additional incentive. Factoring this in meant that the £164 million attributed to the NPP would only be able to deliver 690,000 additional treatments. Delivering all 1.13 million additional treatments would cost an additional £33 million.56
Government Response
A response document is linked to this report, dated 10 July 2025. Response attribution to this conclusion has not been verified. Read the response document ↗