Recommendation 3

DHSC and NHSE’s modelling of what might be achieved, and how much this would cost was wrong and it took too long to identify the error, raising wider concerns about the quality assurance processes in place for such plans. DHSC and NHSE only identified an error in their assumptions about the cost of the new patient premium during preparation for our evidence session, a year since the publication of the plan in February 2024. 4 While they assured us that the error was not material to the delivery of the plan, we were concerned that something as fundamental as the cost of the plan, and the number of appointments it could deliver, was based on flawed analysis. The NAO report in November 2024, and the Health and Social Care Committee’s inquiry into NHS dentistry in March 2024, had previously raised concerns over how robust this modelling was. We heard that DHSC and NHSE have now designated dentistry a “business–critical model”, and that additional resource and quality assurance will be available in the future, but they have yet to make clear what this change will mean in practice. recommendation In their Treasury Minute response to this report DHSC and NHSE should set out how they are strengthening their own analytical capabilities in dentistry, and explain what will change in practice as a result of dentistry being designated as ‘business critical’.