Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 3
3
Accepted
Explain how DHSC and NHSE will strengthen dental analytical capabilities and implement business-critical changes in practice.
Recommendation
DHSC and NHSE’s modelling of what might be achieved, and how much this would cost was wrong and it took too long to identify the error, raising wider concerns about the quality assurance processes in place for such plans. DHSC and NHSE only identified an error in their assumptions about the cost of the new patient premium during preparation for our evidence session, a year since the publication of the plan in February 2024. 4 While they assured us that the error was not material to the delivery of the plan, we were concerned that something as fundamental as the cost of the plan, and the number of appointments it could deliver, was based on flawed analysis. The NAO report in November 2024, and the Health and Social Care Committee’s inquiry into NHS dentistry in March 2024, had previously raised concerns over how robust this modelling was. We heard that DHSC and NHSE have now designated dentistry a “business–critical model”, and that additional resource and quality assurance will be available in the future, but they have yet to make clear what this change will mean in practice. recommendation In their Treasury Minute response to this report DHSC and NHSE should set out how they are strengthening their own analytical capabilities in dentistry, and explain what will change in practice as a result of dentistry being designated as ‘business critical’.
Government Response Summary
The government is undertaking a lessons learned exercise due Summer 2025 to understand modelling errors and incorporating dental modelling into the 'Business Critical Model' process from April 2025 for additional scrutiny. Analytical teams are also working more closely together to improve quality assurance.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. analytical work supporting the modelling of dental contract changes and reform. In addition, NHSE are undertaking a lessons learnt exercise to fully understand the key causes of the modelling error, and how to decrease the risk of similar problem occurring in the future. The outcome will be an internal report documenting this and setting out the recommendations for improvement. This is due in Summer 2025. In the short term, with the integration of NHSE and DHSC the analytical teams are now working more closely together which provides the opportunity for greater levels of analytical quality assurance. The level of analytical input into dental analysis in the medium term, is likely to be determined as part of the work involved with integrating NHSE and DHSC. NHSE has an established standard “Business Critical Model” process for assessing all modelling work. As part of this assessment some specific models may be designated as business critical where they have the potential for significant patient, financial or operational impact. These models will receive additional scrutiny and assurance, this process is overseen by the Business Critical Models Oversight Group (BCMOG). From April 2025, dental modelling relating to future changes to the contract was incorporated within this process, overseen by the BCMOG.