Conclusion 6

The Ministry of Justice is facing a potentially huge spike in demand from changes to sentencing and increased funding for the Police, which risks placing increased strain on already stretched services. The intention to recruit 20,000 more police officers over the next 3 years will have downstream impacts on the rest of the justice system. The number of people being prosecuted and going to court, those being sentenced to prison terms and under the supervision of probation are all likely to rise. The Ministry is still working through the possible impact and quantifying the potential scale of the change, which will depend on when and where police will be deployed. Given the operational and financial pressure that court, prison and probation services are already under, it is far from certain the Ministry will have the capacity and capability to cope with a significant rise in demand. Sustained cuts to the Ministry’s funding have put services under strain. While the Ministry received a 4.9% increase in the 2019–10 Spending Round, it is not clear if this will be enough to match new demands. Recommendation: The Ministry should report back to the Committee in six months, setting out how it plans to maintain and improve services in the face of rising demand in the justice system. The plans should cover: • Court and tribunal services; • Prisons; and • Probation. 8 Transforming Courts and Tribunals: progress review 1 Delivering the reforms