Recommendation 4

We are not convinced that the Ministry’s plans to create more capacity will allow it to match the expected increase in the prison population whilst keeping prisoners safe under its care. Rising demand for prison places, places being taken out of use and delays in building new prisons have put significant pressure on the capacity of the prison estate. Almost two-thirds of adult prisons in England and Wales are already crowded, with the top ten most crowded prisons running at 147% or higher than their intended capacity. Demand for prison places could outstrip supply by 2022–23. A lack of capacity within some types of prison means that many prisoners already live in unnecessarily stringent security conditions while others live in low- security environments relative to their higher risks. Current demand for prison places has slowed as a result of the cancellation of jury trails during the COVID-19 Improving the prison estate 7 pandemic, creating a backlog of over 524,000 cases that will eventually flow through into the prison system. Both the Ministry and HMPSS expect demand for prison places to increase as the courts and the Crown Prosecution Service return to full capacity. HMPPS needs headroom in the prison estate to deliver its reconfiguration project, undertake essential maintenance and deal with potential further waves of COVID-19. It has so far averted major loss of life from the COVID-19 pandemic thanks in part to the heroic efforts of prison staff. It will need robust plans to manage further waves of the virus and the impact on staff and prisoners. Recommendation: The Ministry should write to us in six months to explain how its plans to create the right type of capacity within the prison estate will be resilient to rising demand and further potential shocks from Covid-19, and create sufficient headroom to allow it to address the maintenance backlog. It should set out: • How it expects the prison population to change in the coming years (including the impact of