Recommendation 2

The Department could not show that its commitment to 50,000 more nurses by 2025 matches the actual need for nurses in the NHS. It is essential that the NHS understands not just how many nurses it needs, but where and in what specialism. The NHS Long Term Plan, published in January 2019, did not have a complete assessment of the type and number of nurses needed to deliver the plan, leaving that to the People Plan promised for later in 2019. In December 2019, while the People Plan was still in development, the government made a pledge to deliver 50,000 more nurses by 2025. However in March 2020 NHSE&I and HEE were still developing a model to understand and quantify the demand for nurses. Demand varies between specialisms and regions. For example, nursing vacancy rates are particularly high for mental health trusts and in London. NHSE&I says that local areas are revising their estimates of the number of nurses they need in light of COVID-19, which it will publish with the second part of the People Plan, after the next Spending Review. Recommendation: NHSE&I and HEE should update and publish the results of their modelling work on the demand for NHS nurses, including details for regions and specialisms and any impacts arising from the COVID-19 outbreak.