Recommendation 10

It is fortunate that the majority of the ventilators were not needed and that there is now additional capacity if they should be required in the future. Nevertheless, we are concerned that the Department was not able to give a clear explanation of how it now assesses whether the NHS has sufficient ventilators and other critical equipment for any future need. It told us that its approach to decision making has changed fundamentally since the initial crisis. It said that it has largely “moved away from mathematical models” and that decision making is now more strongly driven by the “situation of the day. It explained that it now uses daily data and the knowledge of how infection rates translate into the numbers of patients requiring hospitalisation and more intensive treatment to assess the situation at a point in time. However, it also emphasised that the number of ventilators the NHS will ultimately need will depend on the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdowns, that the government puts in place and the level of public compliance with the rules.16 14 C&AG’s Report paras 2.12, 2.14 & Figure 2 15 Qq 62–64; C&AG’s Report paras 7, 2.16 16 Q 121 12 Covid-19: Supply of ventilators 2 The government’s approach to securing ventilators The credibility of suppliers