Recommendation 8

From February to April, NHSE&I’s estimate of how many mechanical ventilators the NHS would need in a worst-case scenario changed repeatedly. Its estimates were based on reasonable worst-case planning assumptions assured by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision-makers during emergencies. On 12 February these estimates indicated a need of up to 59,000 beds with mechanical ventilators at the peak of the crisis and by 1 March, this had had increased to 90,000. On 24 March estimates reduced to a need of up to 17,500 by 13 April and again on 8 April to just 6,200 needed by early May.11 The Department explained that the reasonable worst-case scenarios, something it thought was only 5–10% likely to happen, reduced due to both the inclusion of the estimated impact of interventions such as social distancing in the models and a better knowledge of how the virus spread.12