Recommendation 22

The Department forecasts that site disposals in its DEO Portfolio will deliver net savings of £0.65 billion by 2040—measured in terms of disposal proceeds and reduced running costs, offset by rehousing costs. The Department emphasised that its estate disposal programme remains value for money. However, since 2016 its forecast benefits have fallen by 73% from £2.4 billion because of higher than expected disposal costs and delays in achieving disposals. The figure of £0.65 billion remains extremely uncertain. The Department’s estimates were based on preliminary studies rather than actual data on costs; additional costs falling to TLBs were excluded; estimates did not include the additional cost of meeting recent sustainability targets; and the risk of cost increases was likely to be underestimated.34