Recommendation 9

We questioned the Treasury and the Cabinet Office on how departments are expected to estimate the impact of efficiency savings on service user behaviour, and how this is incorporated into plans for efficiency.22 The Treasury told us that it agreed with the National Audit Office’s recommendations that it should collectively assess the effects, behavioural impact and knock-on consequences of reforms, but stressed that these judgments can be inherently difficult. The Treasury expects departments to provide an initial assessment of the effects on service users, whilst their assessment of the likely impact of efficiency programmes are subject to further stress testing, including by experts in data, major projects or property. The Treasury also said it plans to learn from similar attempts at reforms in the past, such as the automation of services. The Treasury said it was hopeful the ‘Public Value Framework’, recommended by the Barber review, will improve departments’ ability to assess the initial impacts of reforms.23 Optimism bias