Recommendation 2

Significant uncertainty remains as to whether consumers will rapidly change their behaviours in line with the expectations of government’s Net Zero Strategy. For government to achieve net zero by 2050 requires extensive consumer engagement with its policies and behaviour change in line with its objectives, from installing heat pumps and better insulation to driving electric vehicles. For example, government has a target of installing 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028, and that by 2035 all new cars and vans sold are to be zero emission. However, government has a poor track record of engaging consumers, including over-estimating buy-in to its policies. For now, the cost to consumers of these products can be high, although government is confident that this will change and the cost of, for example, a heat pump will be lower by 2035 than the cost of a gas boiler. In addition, the Department does not yet have a picture of the cumulative impacts its net zero policies are having on individuals and groups, although it is monitoring public attitudes to net zero issues on a quarterly basis. Recommendation: The Department should: • Include consumer take-up relative to expectations, and how different social groups are being impacted, in its annual progress updates. • Conduct scenario planning to prepare for and inform situations where consumer take-up falls below expectations. • Evaluate the causes of any consumer take-up shortfalls, to inform policy responses.