Recommendation 3

The NHS will be less able to deal with backlogs if it does not address longstanding workforce issues and ensure the existing workforce, including in urgent and emergency care and general practice, is well supported. NHSE&I believes it will be 2 or 3 years before there is a material increase in NHS capacity as a result of the changes it plans to elective care. Large numbers of people waiting for so long 6 NHS backlogs and waiting times in England presents a huge risk to primary care and emergency services (such as general practice and A&E) because unmet health demand can result in more GP appointments and more medical emergencies. Evidence from the University of Manchester’s Voices of COVID-19 project highlights the concerns of frontline NHS staff regarding the public dissatisfaction they face and the NHS’s lack of capacity to deal with backlogs of care. The Department and NHSE&I need to ensure the NHS workforce is adequately supported and that its service recovery planning is integrated with its planning for staffing and other types of resources. Recommendation: In implementing its recovery plan NHSE&I’s should publish its assessment of how the size of the NHS workforce (GPs, hospital doctors and nurses) will change over the next three years, so that there is transparency about the human resources that the NHS has available to deal with backlogs.