Recommendation 4

We are concerned that the financial sustainability of some providers is being put at risk by their heavy dependence on their ability to continue growing overseas student numbers. Many providers are already highly dependent on cross-subsidy to make up deficits in publicly funded teaching and research. Much of this subsidy comes from income from overseas students’ fees; in 2019–20, there were more than 340,000 overseas students at English providers, almost half of whom came from China or India. Many providers’ medium- and long-term financial forecasts assume continued growth in student numbers, particularly overseas students. The OfS monitors providers’ forecasts and has in the past found their student number projections to be over-optimistic. There are also risks associated with an over reliance on international recruitment which may not align well with the UK’s wider geopolitical interests. The Department asserts that it is aware of such risks and is encouraging the sector to diversify in terms of where providers recruit their students from. There are also cross-government considerations, such as how student recruitment is affected by, and potentially at odds with, the Home Office’s plans to control migration. The Department recognises that it is a very competitive market and that there are many countries around the world seeking to bring in more international students, for exactly the same reasons that UK providers are. Recommendation: The Department, drawing on OfS analysis as appropriate, should set out what it considers to be the risks to achieving the continued forecast growth in overseas student numbers universities are relying on for their future financial security, and explain how it is mitigating those risks. Financial sustainability of the higher education sector in England 7