Recommendation 5

After starting with a portfolio of seven candidates, the UK’s vaccine supply for 2022 and 2023 now relies primarily on just two, yet many of the risks that the ‘portfolio’ approach was intended to mitigate remain. The UK’s portfolio strategy aimed to optimise the chances of success in securing access to vaccines at a time of huge uncertainty. Out of the original portfolio of seven candidates, six have been approved for use in the UK to date, with three—AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna— actually deployed. However, the only new contracts the UK signed in 2021 were The rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine programme in England 7 with Pfizer and Moderna, both manufacturers of mRNA vaccines. The Vaccine Taskforce is confident that these remain the most effective choice for boosters and will provide the UK with access to reformulations against emerging variant viruses, if required. However uncertainty remains, which the original portfolio strategy was designed to mitigate. While the UK will be likely to continue to need 6- or 12-month COVID-19 booster campaigns for at-risk groups, there is much uncertainty about, for example, the emergence of new variants and what kind of vaccines might be needed in future. The COVID-19 vaccine market is also still very much a developing market and consequently volatile. Recommendation: The Department and the Vaccine Taskforce should urgently review the future procurement strategy for COVID-19 vaccines, seeking all necessary clinical and commercial expertise, to ensure that future contracts are not let to too narrow a set of providers. It should report the results of the work in detail to the Committee.