Recommendation 26

HMPO estimated that at least three million customers who delayed renewing or applying for their passports due to the COVID-19 pandemic and have not yet done so. At the time of the NAO report, it expected to receive approximately 9.8 million applications in 2023 – 1.3 million more than it received in 2022.44 HMPO told us that it expected demand for passports in 2023 to have more peaks than it did before the COVID-19 pandemic, and that it will be more “front-loaded”, as many customers will apply just before they plan to travel in the summer. HMPO told us that it had observed a shift in behaviour over the COVID-19 pandemic with people choosing not to renew expired passports until they have a pressing reason to, such as travel, as opposed to renewing them as soon as they expire.45 HMPO still expected, however, higher than average demand in 2032, when the record numbers of passports it issued in 2022 are due to expire.46