Recommendation 9

The Cabinet Office told us that while some departments are very good at forecasting, others struggle. UKSV has therefore put a lot of effort into improving its management information to help it work with customers on predictive analytics, to improve the accuracy of their forecasts. The Cabinet Office said UKSV now has a better understanding of the policies and programmes that drive customer demand.19 The government chief security officer attributed the significant level of customers’ under-forecasts in 2021–22 to three factors: underestimating the supressed demand post-COVID; a failure to take account of the changing threat environment; and underestimating societal and employment changes in 2021–22, such as the doubling of moves within the Civil Service after COVID-19.20