Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 9
9
Accepted
UKSV improves customer demand forecasting for security clearances using enhanced predictive analytics.
Conclusion
The Cabinet Office told us that while some departments are very good at forecasting, others struggle. UKSV has therefore put a lot of effort into improving its management information to help it work with customers on predictive analytics, to improve the accuracy of their forecasts. The Cabinet Office said UKSV now has a better understanding of the policies and programmes that drive customer demand.19 The government chief security officer attributed the significant level of customers’ under-forecasts in 2021–22 to three factors: underestimating the supressed demand post-COVID; a failure to take account of the changing threat environment; and underestimating societal and employment changes in 2021–22, such as the doubling of moves within the Civil Service after COVID-19.20
Government Response Summary
The government agrees to improve forecasting and demand planning for 2024/25, with UKSV undertaking a full review of processes, planning engagement exercises, and proactive engagement with high-demand customers.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
2.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: September 2023 2.2 UKSV has faced significant challenges in helping customers accurately forecast and regulate demand levels over the last three years. While some of the factors behind the changes in demand, such as the changing security context and the COVID pandemic, have been sudden and unpredictable, the Cabinet Office recognises there is more that can be done to make UKSV more resilient to these changes. 2.3 To deliver improvements for the next financial year (2024/25), UKSV is undertaking a full review of current forecasting and demand planning processes, in collaboration with their customers, to identify areas where the process can be streamlined and simplified to help customers forecast better. UKSV is planning engagement exercises with other government departments and organisations whose business is dependent on similar kinds of forecasting and planning, in order to better understand what works and aim to align with HM Government/industry best practice. UKSV will also undertake more proactive engagement with the customers who generate the most vetting demand, so they can assist them more closely throughout the planning process. 2.4 In addition, UKSV has implemented a series of agreements with customers that set out the expectations for how UKSV handles changes in demand, as well as proposing that vetting governance mechanisms in place, which customers are part of, are empowered to make decisions and agreements on where UKSV’s resources should be focussed. This builds on the progress made in recent improvements to management information (MI) that UKSV now produces, including access to customer MI which will help with customer forecasting.