Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 2
2
Accepted
Require Cabinet Office to improve customer forecasting and UKSV resilience to demand changes.
Recommendation
The Cabinet Office is over reliant on customer demand forecasts and failed to predict changes in demand for security vetting. UKSV’s customers provide demand forecasts each October to enable it to assess what level of resources it will need for the following financial year. UKSV relies on customers to provide accurate forecasts but these vary in quality, and it is aiming to work more closely with customers to help them improve their forecasts through better use of data. While it is unsurprising that forecasts for 2020–21 did not anticipate the reduced demand that COVID-19 lockdowns caused, UKSV and its customers failed to anticipate a resurgence of demand once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. UKSV argues that the changing threat environment and wider societal changes in the employment market added to demand in a way that was not anticipated beforehand. This is not the first time UKSV has been impacted by a sudden increase in demand, for example it saw a similar trend following the Brexit vote in 2016. Recommendation 2: The Cabinet Office should set out what steps it is taking to help its customers improve their forecasting and to make UKSV more resilient to changes in demand.
Government Response Summary
The Cabinet Office agrees and will improve UKSV's forecasting and resilience by undertaking a full review of processes, engaging with other departments and major customers, and implementing new agreements on demand management.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. regulate demand levels over the last three years. While some of the factors behind the changes in demand, such as the changing security context and the COVID pandemic, have been sudden and unpredictable, the Cabinet Office recognises there is more that can be done to make UKSV more resilient to these changes. To deliver improvements for the next financial year (2024/25), UKSV is undertaking a full review of current forecasting and demand planning processes, in collaboration with their customers, to identify areas where the process can be streamlined and simplified to help customers forecast better. UKSV is planning engagement exercises with other government departments and organisations whose business is dependent on similar kinds of forecasting and planning, in order to better understand what works and aim to align with HM Government/industry best practice. UKSV will also undertake more proactive engagement with the customers who generate the most vetting demand, so they can assist them more closely throughout the planning process. In addition, UKSV has implemented a series of agreements with customers that set out the expectations for how UKSV handles changes in demand, as well as proposing that vetting governance mechanisms in place, which customers are part of, are empowered to make decisions and agreements on where UKSV’s resources should be focussed. This builds on the progress made in recent improvements to management information (MI) that UKSV now produces, including access to customer MI which will help with customer forecasting.