Recommendation 2

The Cabinet Office is over reliant on customer demand forecasts and failed to predict changes in demand for security vetting. UKSV’s customers provide demand forecasts each October to enable it to assess what level of resources it will need for the following financial year. UKSV relies on customers to provide accurate forecasts but these vary in quality, and it is aiming to work more closely with customers to help them improve their forecasts through better use of data. While it is unsurprising that forecasts for 2020–21 did not anticipate the reduced demand that COVID-19 lockdowns caused, UKSV and its customers failed to anticipate a resurgence of demand once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. UKSV argues that the changing threat environment and wider societal changes in the employment market added to demand in a way that was not anticipated beforehand. This is not the first time UKSV has been impacted by a sudden increase in demand, for example it saw a similar trend following the Brexit vote in 2016. Recommendation 2: The Cabinet Office should set out what steps it is taking to help its customers improve their forecasting and to make UKSV more resilient to changes in demand.